what is the odds of aohell buying out RH?


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "ABrady" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 8:43 AM
Subject: Re: AOL in Negotiations to Buy Red Hat


> Dave Ihnat said:
> 
> > On Sat, Jan 19, 2002 at 09:14:23AM -0600, ABrady wrote:
> > > I can see the new, improved slogan:
> > >
> > > "It's so simple, any simpleton can use it!"
> > >
> > > It would likely lead some windolts away from windoze and let them
> > > pretend they're _real_ power users now. In about 20 minutes the
> linux
> > > world will be flooded with new worms and causing major overloads on
> > > servers passing the new Linux Homepage Virus to everybody in each
> user's
> > > Evolution addressbook.
> > >
> > > No thanks!
> >
> > Well, I've lived through the predictions of doom'n'gloom due to the
> > incipient presence of the hoi polloi since the early '80s; that's not
> > got me so worried, per se.
> >
> > First, by allowing anyone on USENET--not just academia and
> > business/research-- it was going to be degraded below usability.
> > In some respects, it was; in others, it just picked up and kept
> moving,
> > eventually leading to the rise of the Internet.  USENET still lives,
> > but is pretty much a backwater compared to its position of preeminence
> > in the early days.
> >
> > Then, it was allowing commercial use of USENET.  THAT was going to
> ruin
> > it.  In some ways, it got worse, but there were enough bytes to go
> around.
> >
> > THEN, it was anyone and everyone setting up web sites; the pollution
> > was going to ruin everything.  THEN, in very short order, it was
> > advertisements on the Web.
> >
> > What's fundamentally different with this is that a major resource
> > will be taken over and used as a tool in AOL's war with Microsoft.
> > This means it is NOT going to evolve in the same general direction as
> a
> > "free-range" Linux system, but rather, the focus will be to provide
> tools
> > and a facade that supports AOL Time-Warner's specific goals.
> >
> > This will probably remove it from contention as a general-purpose
> server
> > platform, AND as a high-end professional desktop, since even if they
> > _intend_ to try to tell us they're going to continue to provide such
> > lines, the inevitable fragmentation of focus, dilution of development
> > efforts, and complexity of trying ot maintain several variant product
> > lines is an exceedingly difficult task.  And it's made even moreso by
> the
> > fact that Linux itself is still rapidly evolving, meaning they'd have
> to
> > absorb new features in all lines concurrently.  I just don't think
> they're
> > at that level of organization in this field.  Or corporate commitment.
> >
> > $0.02, YMMV, Pre-coffee.
> 
> I don't argue on the side of doom and gloom often. I don't always turn
> out right when I do. But I turn out right more often than I turn out
> wrong. If it was the other way I'd be less inclined to continue trying.
> 
> I don't doubt that AOL would continue to work toward some kind of linux.
> Corel did, too. I look at the quality of that product (mediocre) and the
> quality of most everything else associated with AOL (bad to mediocre)
> when I have serious doubts about what
> happens here.
> 
> In the beginning, there likely won't be anything to really notice about
> changes in things. But, as time passes, things will change. The need to
> gain more and more users will be the cause for a push into areas that
> aren't aimed at stability and security, but ease of use and eye-candy
> and convenience. Things will begin looking a lot like the desktop for
> the people that they are fighting against at the expense of much more
> important things.
> 
> I escaped windoze for several reasons. One of the components I haven't
> missed is AOL being on the desktop every time I install or reinstall
> anything. Or maybe I should reword that to say I miss them about like I
> miss a few ingrown toenails I've had.
> 
> I watched them gobble up Netscape. Where is it now?
> 
> I look at their commercials (after all, they're everywhere you can look
> on TV and in mags) and I see somebody pointing straight at the lowest
> common denominator. Well, MS goes for the lowest common denominator.
> What is the result from that effort? Ex-Pee with security holes the size
> of China, problems with CD writers, themes that won't stay how the users
> set them, hardware that doesn't work (even with updated drivers),
> spontaneous reboots (as a replacement for the BSOD), stop errors that
> are just as cryptic to most people as the hexcodes on BSODs. Not to
> mention all of the problems created by the WPA: licenses expiring after
> a reinstall that was required due to previous instability, booting and
> getting notices that the "trial" installation they are running is about
> to timeout (even though it was bought and actiuvate properly), the
> inability to install multiple machines with the same release and copy
> (except for the coporate versions, which allow everybody to install as
> many times as they like, presumably until the BSA comes around and
> threatenes to sue them for millions and coerces them into signing their
> lives away forever, only using the distro du jour). Obviously, if this
> distro becomes a pawn in the shell game of these two, some method will
> surely be created to disallow installing parts of one with parts of the
> other, so likely there'll be something WPA-like with everything AOL
> owns, too.
> 
> I look at the fact they gobbled up Time/Warner, who gobbled up Turner.
> CNN is losing ground, in part because of the poor quality of their
> reporting. But I don't see any major strides in recapturing the market
> share they've lost. It might not be AOL's fault, but it's happened on
> their watch.
> 
> About the only thing I see that actually has grown under AOL is AOL.
> I'll tell you, I'm not interested in chat rooms and buddy lists. I don't
> need keywords. I don't like spending 20 minutes downloading upgrades to
> who knows what every time I login for the first time that day. I did
> that before. I quit doing it a long time ago. THAT's what AOL means to
> me!
> 
> What this very easily could turn out to be IMHO is a slow erosion from
> the quality the was RedHat to the simplistic methodology that permeates
> everything AOL. Not because of interest in spreading the use of linux,
> but in the interest of attracting more users away from MS.
> 
> I wouldn't and won't care if the quality continues as it has been. I'll
> stick around unless and until I begin seeing signs of erosion. If it
> doesn't, I won't
> 
> I've lived in several cities in my life. Not suburbs, in the cities.
> I've prided myself on always knowing when to move before things turned
> ugly. I've been keen on seeing the direction things were going long
> before they actually began to appear. I think if I'm watchful enough I
> might just be able to do the same here. Again, that presumes it actually
> worsens. If it doesn't I have no reason to go anywhere. I'm just not
> hopeful, given the track record of AOL, that any version of linux they
> own can ever be successful.
> 
> 
> 
> 
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