Moore's Law (which has grown in scope since Moore) applies to the aggregate effect of many technologies. Individual techs proceed in fits and starts. Predictions about FLOPS/dollar seem to be sustainable, but e.g. I predict a jump in chip density when the price point of vapor deposition manufactured diamond gets low enough (diamond conducts heat way better than silicon, and chips are suffering from thermodynamics limits).
When AT&T divested, you could not get a decent telephone anymore; they were too expensive to make so well. Then after years of crummy phones, suddenly everyone had a cell-phone just like Captain Kirk's. Sure I want fiber optics to my house. But maybe the power company will carry data on the wasted bandwidth of power lines. Keep the faith :-) Peter On 2/1/07, Mark Hahn <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Not true. Distributed computing is more and more mainstream. I think too oh, one other snide comment about grid: I suspect the grid-fad could not have happened without the fraud perpetrated by worldcom and others during the internet bubble. in those days, it was popular to claim that the network was becoming truely ubiquitous and incomprehensibly fast. for instance: http://www-128.ibm.com/developerworks/grid/library/gr-heritage/#N100A6 I don't know about you, but in the 6 years since then, my home net connection has stayed the same speed, possibly a bit more expensive. desktop/LANs are still mostly at 100bT, with 1000bT in limited use. I do notice that grabbing large files off the net (ftp, RPMs, etc) often runs at O(MBps) which is about a 10x improvement over the past 10-15 years. so the doubling time turns out to be more like 3 years rather than 9 months. in-cluster networking has improved somewhat faster, but not dramatically so. _______________________________________________ Beowulf mailing list, Beowulf@beowulf.org To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf
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