Dear Peter,

Thanks very much for the references. It seems the method is based on parametric 
proportional hazard models by incorporating cubic spline of the baseline 
hazards, not sure if tweaking survreg() would do?

Best,

John


----- Original Message -----
From: Peter Jepsen <p...@dce.au.dk>
To: 'array chip' <arrayprof...@yahoo.com>; r-help <r-help@r-project.org>
Cc: 
Sent: Thursday, August 4, 2011 1:09 PM
Subject: SV: [R] survival probability estimate method

Dear John

I am not aware of an R package that does this, but I believe that Patrick 
Royston's -stpm- function for Stata does. Here's two references found in 
http://www.stata-journal.com/sjpdf.html?articlenum=st0001_2: 
Royston, P. 2001. Flexible parametric alternatives to the Cox model. Stata 
Journal 1(1): 1-28.
Royston, P. and M. K. B. Parmar. 2002. Flexible parametric-hazards and 
proportional odds models for censored survival data, with application to 
prognostic modelling and estimation of treatment effects. Statistics in 
Medicine 21: 2175-2197.

Best regards,
Peter.

-----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
Fra: r-help-boun...@r-project.org [mailto:r-help-boun...@r-project.org] På 
vegne af array chip
Sendt: 4. august 2011 20:45
Til: r-help
Emne: [R] survival probability estimate method

Hi, I was reading a paper published in JCO "Prediction of risk of distant 
recurrence using 21-gene recurrence score in node-negative and node-positive 
postmenopausal patients with breast cancer treated with anastrozole or 
tamoxifen: a TransATAC study" (ICO 2010 28: 1829). The author uses a method to 
estimate the 9-year risk of distant recurrence as a function of continuous 
recurrence score (RS). The method is special as author states:
 
"To define the continuous relation between RS, as a linear covariate, and 
9-year risk of distant recurrence, the logarithm of the baseline cumulative 
hazard function was fitted by constrained cubic splines with 3 df. These models 
tend to be more robust for prediction of survival probabilities and 
corresponding confidence limits at late follow-up time as a result of the 
modeling of the baseline cumulative hazard function by natural cubic splines 
(in contrast to using the crude hazard function itself)."
 
Does R provide a package/function to do this particular method for estimating 
survival probability as a function of a continuous variable? Is the 
survest.cph() in rms package doing estimation with just the crude hazard 
function?
 
Thanks very much!
 
John

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