Hi all, the reference for this method was:

“Flexible parametric proportional-hazards and proportional-odds models for 
censored survival data, with application to prognostic modeling and estimation 
of treatment effects” published in Stat Med (2002) 21: 2175
 
The abstract is:
 
Modelling of censored survival data is almost always done by Cox 
proportional-hazards regression. However, use of parametric models for such 
data may have some advantages. For example, non-proportional hazards, a 
potential difficulty with Cox models, may sometimes be handled in a simple way, 
and visualization of the hazard function is much easier. Extensions of the 
Weibull and log-logistic models are proposed in which natural cubic splines are 
used to smooth the baseline log cumulative hazard and log cumulative odds of 
failure functions. Further extensions to allow non-proportional effects of some 
or all of the covariates are introduced. A hypothesis test of the 
appropriateness of the scale chosen for covariate effects (such as of 
treatment) is proposed. The new models are applied to two data sets in cancer. 
The results throw interesting light on the behaviour of both the hazard 
function and the hazard ratio over time. The tools described here may be a
 step towards providing greater insight into the natural history of the disease 
and into possible underlying causes of clinical events. We illustrate these 
aspects by using the two examples in cancer.
 
Hope this helps someone give me some hints how to do this in R.
 
Thanks
 
John
 
----- Original Message -----
From: array chip <arrayprof...@yahoo.com>
To: r-help <r-help@r-project.org>
Cc: 
Sent: Thursday, August 4, 2011 11:44 AM
Subject: [R] survival probability estimate method

Hi, I was reading a paper published in JCO "Prediction of risk of distant 
recurrence using 21-gene recurrence score in node-negative and node-positive 
postmenopausal patients with breast cancer treated with anastrozole or 
tamoxifen: a TransATAC study" (ICO 2010 28: 1829). The author uses a method to 
estimate the 9-year risk of distant recurrence as a function of continuous 
recurrence score (RS). The method is special as author states:
 
"To define the continuous relation between RS, as a linear covariate, and 
9-year risk of distant recurrence, the logarithm of the baseline cumulative 
hazard function was fitted by constrained cubic splines with 3 df. These models 
tend to be more robust for prediction of survival probabilities and 
corresponding confidence limits at late follow-up time as a result of the 
modeling of the baseline cumulative hazard function by natural cubic splines 
(in contrast to using the crude hazard function itself)."
 
Does R provide a package/function to do this particular method for estimating 
survival probability as a function of a continuous variable? Is the 
survest.cph() in rms package doing estimation with just the crude hazard 
function?
 
Thanks very much!
 
John

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