I figured out the problem, thanks largely to Jean-Michel Doublet.

I enabled debugging on the LMTP daemon that had the socket open (in cyrus.conf,
'cmd="lmtpd -a"'), and saw that it was trying to create a directory called
"/var/spool/imap/stage." which already existed.

By removing that directory, lmtpd created it again, and it can deliver fine
now.

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