https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-025-1794-7

*Authors: *Liya Niu, Chuanfeng Zhao, Haotian Zhang, Yongen Liang & Annan
Chen

*26 February 2026*

*Abstract*
Marine cloud brightening (MCB), a regional solar radiation modification
geoengineering approach, has drawn significant attention regarding its
feasibility and risk assessment. Based on MODIS satellite remote sensing
data from 2003 to 2024, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution
characteristics and correlations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), cloud
droplet effective radius (CER), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud
fraction (CF) globally. Building on these results, five representative
regions were selected to quantify the sensitivity of low-cloud
characteristics to AOD, followed by an assessment of the global MCB
potential. The results indicate that in the North Pacific region,
particularly during autumn (SON), CF, COT, and CER exhibit favorable
synergistic enhancement effects. However, these regions demonstrate both
high sensitivity in cloud characteristic responses and significant
heterogeneity in responses across different areas. Furthermore, the study
revealed decoupling phenomena in the responses of cloud macro- and
micro-physical characteristics in certain sea areas, where CER did not
decrease despite increases in CF and COT with AOD. Distinct physical
pathways of cloud response are also identified, manifesting as either
“cloud area expansion” or “cloud thickening”. Integrating these findings,
this study provides a foundational understanding for elucidating
aerosol-low cloud interaction mechanisms and advancing MCB geoengineering
research. Specifically, an effective MCB potential assessment framework
must transcend static climatological screening toward dynamic systems
analysis of sensitivity and robustness, macro-micro response synergy, and
evolving background climate states, thereby supporting more rigorous
scientific evaluation of this geoengineering strategy.

*Source: Springer Nature Link *

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