do the magnets produce an altered state of consciousness, or just mess up the optic nerve? "Sparkles and rainbows" are a common aspect of LSD trips. How strong a magnet? Sounds like something I might try.
davew On Tue, Apr 7, 2026, at 9:28 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > I briefly collaborated with a staffer at the National High Magnetic Field > Laboratory. She said that near the big magnets, vision goes to sparkles and > rainbows. > > I think this experiment might not be a good idea, at least in the cause of > understanding the scientific utility of metaphor? > *From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Santafe > <[email protected]> > *Date: *Monday, April 6, 2026 at 7:08 PM > *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Metaphor... and more... > Thanks Nick, > > I will have to read your longer-form work. Your use of all this is so far > from my own, and so far from any literature and user community that I work > with or in, that I don’t even know what you mean different words to be doing > in your sentences, and thus what you believe yourself to be asserting. (If I > could track that much, I could then come back to whether I think the > assertions “go through”, or under what analysis one would make such a > judgment.) > > Clearly this is going to be a matter of just blanking my mind (giant > magnetostimulation of the brain) and submerging in your writing for a while, > to try to “get a feel” for your language usage. Then come back to these > short forms and see if I can follow them any better. > > Eric > > > >> On Apr 6, 2026, at 7:42, Nicholas Thompson <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> DES -- One urgent point. I asked George to look at our correspondence to >> see what I was missing. He caught one thing immediately "Fitness causes >> selection, selection causes fitness" is not necessarily a tautology nor do i >> think of it as such. Its a virtuous circle, or "spiral" so long as >> **selection and fitness can be independently known. ** >> >> I apologise for wiring text that was open to that misinterpretation. >> >> N >> >> On Sun, Apr 5, 2026 at 5:39 AM Santafe <[email protected]> wrote: >>> Hi Nick, >>> >>> I’m kind of relieved that I posted “I promise I really will shut up” on Apr >>> 1, before Gil’s brief blast of exasperation, which I kind of get. I think >>> I should keep my word, as much as possible without being obnoxious. >>> >>> At the same time, thank you for taking the time to reply, including what I >>> actually wrote, and responding to it in-frame. >>> >>> Your two papers are attached to the later email, too, so we have them. I >>> will read if and as I am able. The abstracts sound like they make a much >>> more normal reference to the routine work that people actually do, than >>> many of the post-string here have (to me); so that is hopeful. >>> >>> I tried a couple of times to come up with some kind of reply, and decided >>> it is hopeless. There is a perfectly good language to address the problem >>> that, after we have identified and characterized traits, and observed that >>> sometimes they change frequencies in populations, we don’t generally know >>> at the outset whether there is something about the traits’ functions in >>> organisms’ lives (in their population contexts) that is eligible to be a >>> “cause” of that change in frequency. We would like to know, for which >>> traits in what settings, variations in trait parameters result in >>> variations in function performance that (through the vast noise of >>> everything else that is going on too) poke through to result in changes in >>> trait frequency. There are no tautologies in the statistical reduction >>> that defines different components of change (among which one is fitness, >>> though its definition is partly by convention), and there are no other >>> problems than the ordinary problems of functional characterization and >>> statistical analysis in figuring out which variations in trait parameters >>> and functions correlate with changes in trait frequency robustly enough to >>> be candidates for cause of the change in frequency. It’s all so terribly >>> ordinary and understandable. >>> >>> Meanwhile, you have a program: to assert that there are some tautologies >>> and some ambiguities etc. Therefore I understand that, since we can >>> observe a field of people who get from problem statements to answers, by >>> completely ordinary and conventional steps with standard methods, without >>> tautologies, whatever those people are doing is simply irrelevant to your >>> program. >>> >>> I will admit, so that it doesn’t just seem irritating, that at a half-dozen >>> points below, I am sure that you are just throwing up verbal chaff and >>> playing word games to try to make something that is actually completely >>> ordinary and orderly “look” all mangled and messed up. But it doesn’t look >>> that way to me. At every one of these, I trip over some string of words >>> that looks like complete nonsense, which doesn’t make the idea we were on >>> “look” like anything; it just veers away from the track of that idea to put >>> a word game in its place. (An example: "success causes fitness, and that >>> fitness causes success") It was after trying to call out two or three of >>> these that I realized i need to just give up. I suspect you could follow >>> an ordinary mathematical argument about as well as the next guy, and you >>> just don’t want to. Thus anything I try to reply will just yield another >>> round with the same form as this one. I will add to irritating the list, >>> which is what I wanted to cut away from doing earlier. >>> >>> I appreciated your introduction of placeholders, and of course I am quite >>> open to that kind of thing. Not so open to the Chalmers kind, which is >>> defined as having _no_ added content from what our ordinary, understandable >>> language, is already doing. I don’t know why you think you see a >>> non-Chalmers-like placeholder here; but okay. >>> >>> So, is it the English who say: Please Proceed. >>> >>> I do hope you will be able to push through to the book you were writing. >>> We accumulate all these unfinished efforts, and it is a shame if they can’t >>> get to some safe harbor in some output. >>> >>> Eric >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> On Apr 4, 2026, at 14:23, Nicholas Thompson <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> DES -- I hate to drag you back into our den and maul you some more but >>>>> your last post was fascinating to me and so akin to difficulties we have >>>>> had with Elliott Sober and difficulties I have had understanding entropy >>>>> (ugh) that I want to pursue them with you further >>>> >>>> >>>> **--for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or >>>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified. Not >>>> sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s about >>>> defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the model >>>> variables that we try to fit to them. I had taken the state of modern >>>> work to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was ever >>>> given.****** >>>> >>>> I am happy to have a variable with a name to represent that dimension. I >>>> just think "fitness" is an appalling name for it. Call it selectedness. >>>> Call it success. Just don't call it fitness or adaptedness or anything >>>> that might confuse a reader into thinking that you have any information >>>> about the morphological or behavioral synchrony of the organism with its >>>> environment. The essence of D's theory is that success causes fitness, >>>> and that fitness causes success. If one calls oneself a Darwinist it must >>>> be because those connections between the two ideas are empirical, not >>>> logical. >>>> >>>> **— are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the >>>> case? That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning, >>>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a >>>> measurement unit? ** >>>> >>>> Indeed, we are >>>> >>>> **Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of reproductive >>>> success”. As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the form of a name, >>>> so there must be something it names, that is a kind of causal force >>>> responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive success. And >>>> since there is one name, there must be some one kind of causal force it >>>> names.** >>>> >>>> Well, if we do believe that the relative success of every genetic type of >>>> organism is systematic then it has a cause. Now I suppose that it's >>>> possible that each instance of success has a different cause, in which we >>>> would have reduced Darwin's theory to, "whatever causes an animal's sucess >>>> causes its success". But I think even FW would rate that a tautology. To >>>> escape that bind, we have to find some class of relations that leads to >>>> success which is other than the class that leads to failure. And to be a >>>> proper Darwinian you have to at least be able to entertain the possibility >>>> that selection would produce something other than fitness and vice versa. >>>> >>>> **— to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have >>>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it. ** >>>> >>>> Well, here we are. We stand before you. I have been making such a claim >>>> in print for 56 years, so either I have managed to pull the wool over many >>>> editors' and reviewr's eyes, or it has some resonance somewhere among >>>> biologists. I hope calling it "bizarre" isn't the first step toward >>>> putting your fingers in your ears and shrieking. >>>> >>>> . >>>> **It seems very similar to taking an expression like “elan vital”, and >>>> saying that, since it has the shape of a name, there must be something it >>>> names. ** >>>> >>>> Well, exactly! The example I like to use is the "dormitive virtue"..Years >>>> ago, before the dinosaurs, Lipton and I wrote a paper in which we talked >>>> about such expressions that purport to be explanatory but which include a >>>> reference to the explanandum within the explanans as "recursive". (eg. >>>> life is caused by the Life Force) The dormitive virtue was a place-holder >>>> for what came to be known as the very specific chemical properties of >>>> morphine. The Moliere play makes fun of people who imagine that the >>>> assignment of a placeholder has solved the problem. We thought of these >>>> place holders as serving to keep the goal in sight while scientists looked >>>> for it. Science consists a lot in filling in or dividing up these place >>>> holders. The progress in the identification of the AIDS virus is a >>>> wonderful example. See, if tempted, Comparative Psychology and the >>>> recursive nature of filter explanations >>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fcommons.clarku.edu%2ffacultyworks%2f66%2f&c=E,1,k4G28ruXzTMikjk22fWt55DQZBrY8oTBaFPZetykCEmKkrdW7Zgm_InoVrTc91PCgHYC1XjdS7pzs2zz_HaX2PnsGuZtad3L3YiDf1g2E2bBiY5y9m0Lp_g,&typo=1> >>>> >>>> **To me, those are strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that >>>> don’t have any semantic referents at all. They may as well be Chomsky’s >>>> “colorless green dreams” or something. I would not have imagined that >>>> there was anything anyone expected, beyond the working out of the >>>> mechanics of lots of cases of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which >>>> can fill out some vast taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath >>>> it. That could well be my lack of empathy for how many other people >>>> think, like my lack of empathy for their thoughts about God (along with my >>>> ignorance about who is in the world). ** >>>> >>>> Indeed. That would explain a lot. Please understand that I am a lifelong >>>> unbeliever. I am not even an atheist. My family had no interest in >>>> religion whatsoever. You might call me a religious Ignoramist. I have >>>> never been cuffed on the ears by nuns. >>>> >>>> **— I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong >>>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like people >>>> who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have talked >>>> about Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away imagined >>>> this reading of what you were writing.** >>>> >>>> Again, that explains a lot of our difficulties. But I beg to suggest that >>>> there is a more generous reading. >>>> >>>> **the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long Emily >>>> Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what population >>>> geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be left is >>>> EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and which isn’t >>>> interesting and wasn’t to your point. So, were you claiming that there are >>>> biologists operating that way**? **And are there really biologists >>>> operating that way?y ** >>>> >>>> Indeed there are. They are called comparative biologists, comparative >>>> anatomists,comparative ethologists, comparative physiologists, anybody who >>>> studies the form of classes of organisms in relation to their >>>> circumstances. Natural design didn't get eliminated by Darwinism; it got >>>> partially, and incompletely and in some cases wrongly explained by it. >>>> Some effort needs to be expended in finding out the degree to which >>>> natural design actually accounts for natural selection and vice versa. >>>> Please see Toward a Falsifiable Theory of Evolution >>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fcommons.clarku.edu%2ffacultyworks%2f67%2f&c=E,1,uEqHnsI2N6agATrwVIuvnLowDECLxZG4KT5Za_GJiyC2lUxcNNve9iY0ZctgPVn2cXHp3MIF_4h0exfyKRO9KdPS6nCz0uerbqjb5nNIWBw,&typo=1> >>>> >>>> >>>> Nick >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Fri, Apr 3, 2026 at 2:17 PM Nicholas Thompson <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>>>> DES -- I hate to drag you back into our den and maul you some more but >>>>>> your last post was fascinting to me and so akin to difficulties we have >>>>>> had with Elliott Sober and difficulties I have had understnding entropy >>>>>> (ugh) that I want to pursue them with you further >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> --for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or >>>>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified. Not >>>>> sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s about >>>>> defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the model >>>>> variables that we try to fit to them. I had taken the state of modern >>>>> work to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was ever given. >>>>> >>>>> — are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the >>>>> case? That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning, >>>>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a >>>>> measurement unit? Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of >>>>> reproductive success”. As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the >>>>> form of a name, so there must be something it names, that is a kind of >>>>> causal force responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive >>>>> success. And since there is one name, there must be some one kind of >>>>> causal force it names. >>>>> >>>>> — to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have >>>>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it. It seems very similar >>>>> to taking an expression like “elan vital”, and saying that, since it has >>>>> the shape of a name, there must be something it names. To me, those are >>>>> strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that don’t have any >>>>> semantic referents at all. They may as well be Chomsky’s “colorless >>>>> green dreams” or something. I would not have imagined that there was >>>>> anything anyone expected, beyond the working out of the mechanics of lots >>>>> of cases of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which can fill out some >>>>> vast taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath it. That could >>>>> well be my lack of empathy for how many other people think, like my lack >>>>> of empathy for their thoughts about God (along with my ignorance about >>>>> who is in the world). >>>>> >>>>> — I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong >>>>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like >>>>> people who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have >>>>> talked about Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away >>>>> imagined this reading of what you were writing. >>>>> >>>>> If the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long >>>>> Emily Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what >>>>> population geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be >>>>> left is EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and >>>>> which isn’t interesting and wasn’t to your point. >>>>> >>>>> So, were you claiming that there are biologists operating that way? >>>>> >>>>> And are there really biologists operating that way? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, Apr 1, 2026 at 5:15 AM Santafe <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> Can I ask one last question? after which I promise I really will shut up: >>>>>> >>>>>> The content of EricC’s note below (about the key in a lock), reflecting >>>>>> back on things Nick said in the early posts about selection’s being a >>>>>> tautology, which got me started digging a hole, have bothered me through >>>>>> the night, and made me wonder if I can understand how I have been >>>>>> missing both-of-y’all’s point. Was it something like the following:? >>>>>> >>>>>> — for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or >>>>>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified. >>>>>> Not sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s >>>>>> about defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the >>>>>> model variables that we try to fit to them. I had taken the state of >>>>>> modern work to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was >>>>>> ever given. >>>>>> >>>>>> — are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the >>>>>> case? That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning, >>>>>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a >>>>>> measurement unit? Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of >>>>>> reproductive success”. As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the >>>>>> form of a name, so there must be something it names, that is a kind of >>>>>> causal force responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive >>>>>> success. And since there is one name, there must be some one kind of >>>>>> causal force it names. >>>>>> >>>>>> — to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have >>>>>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it. It seems very similar >>>>>> to taking an expression like “elan vital”, and saying that, since it has >>>>>> the shape of a name, there must be something it names. To me, those are >>>>>> strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that don’t have any >>>>>> semantic referents at all. They may as well be Chomsky’s “colorless >>>>>> green dreams” or something. I would not have imagined that there was >>>>>> anything anyone expected, beyond the working out of the mechanics of >>>>>> lots of cases of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which can fill out >>>>>> some vast taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath it. That >>>>>> could well be my lack of empathy for how many other people think, like >>>>>> my lack of empathy for their thoughts about God (along with my ignorance >>>>>> about who is in the world). >>>>>> >>>>>> — I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong >>>>>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like >>>>>> people who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have >>>>>> talked about Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away >>>>>> imagined this reading of what you were writing. >>>>>> >>>>>> If the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long >>>>>> Emily Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what >>>>>> population geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be >>>>>> left is EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and >>>>>> which isn’t interesting and wasn’t to your point. >>>>>> >>>>>> So, were you claiming that there are biologists operating that way? >>>>>> >>>>>> And are there really biologists operating that way? >>>>>> >>>>>> As always, I appreciate whatever patience or indulgence, >>>>>> >>>>>> Eric >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> On Mar 31, 2026, at 15:47, Eric Charles >>>>>>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I'm a bit confused here... >>>>>>> The initial dog pile on Nick seemed (to me) to have as one of its main >>>>>>> points something like "Look, old man, once you formalize something >>>>>>> mathematically we don't need to care what any of the words might mean >>>>>>> or imply in any other context, it is just math, stop thinking that the >>>>>>> words matter!" >>>>>>> >>>>>>> And now there have been several posts by EricS, at least one by Glen, >>>>>>> and I think Marcus and Frank are in there somewhere as well, claiming >>>>>>> that the words are crucially important and we need to take them much >>>>>>> more seriously. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> So.... where does that leave us? Is everyone now onboard with the >>>>>>> metaphors mattering quite a bit? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I'll also note that "function" can't do the work on its own to explain >>>>>>> evolution. We still need to know why some functions are favored by >>>>>>> selection and others are not. EricS seemed to indicate that we assess >>>>>>> "fit" by determining if animals are "happy".... but the metaphor of >>>>>>> "fit" is like a key in a lock. To explain evolution you need the >>>>>>> matching of form-and-function-to-a-particular-environment. That >>>>>>> matching *sometimes* increases reproductive success, and *sometimes* >>>>>>> the traits in question are hereditary. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Population genetics combined with field research can be very powerful >>>>>>> along those lines, but the math of population genetics on its own, >>>>>>> floating out in the ether, can't do it at all. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Best, >>>>>>> Eric >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Tue, Mar 31, 2026 at 6:10 AM Santafe <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>> Hi Nick, >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Two smaller replies to what have become two sub-threads: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> > On Mar 30, 2026, at 15:42, Nicholas Thompson >>>>>>>> > <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> > DES, EPC, FW >>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>> > So far as I understand, the argument flowing from Fisher makes no >>>>>>>> > claims about the kind of trait that produces reproductive success >>>>>>>> > other than that it is the kind that produces reproductive success. >>>>>>>> > FW, if that's not a tautology, it's a pretty tight circle. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> As usual, let’s decamp to more neutral ground in the hope of having an >>>>>>>> ordinary negotiation. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Suppose that, in your overweening pursuit of the study of metaphor, >>>>>>>> you never noticed that there is a once/4-year gathering called The >>>>>>>> Olympics. Also never learned what any of its so-called “events” are, >>>>>>>> what they are about, how they work, and how one differs from another. >>>>>>>> My hypothetical here is meant to define a condition of having “very >>>>>>>> little prior information” about some phenomenon that we can, >>>>>>>> nonetheless, still reasonably unambiguously circumscribe. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> But a quick inspection shows that a subset of the participants (who >>>>>>>> all together seem to be called “athletes”) are given metal disks and >>>>>>>> stand on some kind of 3-tiered podium, while other athletes do not. >>>>>>>> Being a statistician — a skill so helpful in the study of metaphor >>>>>>>> that it was worth taking the time out to learn — you immediately >>>>>>>> recognize that this is a kind of marking that can be used to partition >>>>>>>> the athletes. Taking notice, for the first time, of some of the >>>>>>>> conversation in the society around you, who seem not nearly so devoted >>>>>>>> to metaphor and thus have time to do other things, you gather that >>>>>>>> these marked people seem to be called “winners” (or better, >>>>>>>> “medalists”, this “winning” thing is a finer sub-partition; I’ll >>>>>>>> mis-use “winner” to label the most salient marking for this little >>>>>>>> parable). It’s handy to have such a term, for use in later sentences, >>>>>>>> so they become less tedious than the ones I have been typing so far. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> You also note that while there is only one 3-tiered podium and >>>>>>>> metal-disk set per one “event”, there seem to be many such distinct >>>>>>>> “events”, so some kind of event name gives you a second kind of >>>>>>>> marking you can put on the athletes. Moreover, interestingly, the >>>>>>>> “event” label is again a proper partition (or at least seems to be; >>>>>>>> this one is less cut-and-dried than the observation that everyone >>>>>>>> carrying a metal disk is not someone not-carrying a metal disk, so we >>>>>>>> are wary; the event label seems to be a bit more abstract): every >>>>>>>> athlete is in some “event” set, and it appears that no athlete is in >>>>>>>> more than one of them. As with the “winners” label, you learn that >>>>>>>> there are conventionalized names for the events, and you can find a >>>>>>>> look-up table if you need one or another of them. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Now, I can make a list of statements that seem to be of two different >>>>>>>> kinds (scare quotes here indicate my statisticians’ attribute labels; >>>>>>>> in my condition of very little prior knowledge, I don’t claim I have >>>>>>>> any more semantics for them than I listed above): >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> 1. Every “winner" is someone marked as having won something. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> 2a. Every winner in the “gymnastics” event is shorter than the >>>>>>>> average over all the participants; >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> 2b. Every winner in the “high jump” event is taller than the average >>>>>>>> over all the participants; >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> … (we could presumably look for other such summary statistics that >>>>>>>> seem to be unusually regular and to carry different values in >>>>>>>> different “events”). >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> I would say sentence 1 is “a tautology”, or close enough to it for the >>>>>>>> purpose of this negotiation. Maybe I should use EricC’s good, and >>>>>>>> slighly more flexible term, “truism”. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Now you may write a protest email: But the sentences 2a, 2b, have not >>>>>>>> told me what constitutes “competition” in these “events”: “gymnastics” >>>>>>>> and “high jump”, and given me the rule book for scoring them. Okay. >>>>>>>> And they didn’t cook your dinner and do the dishes afterward either. >>>>>>>> Life is hard. And more a propos (breaking my little 4th wall here), >>>>>>>> the path to a fully-adequate “causal” theory through statistical >>>>>>>> inference is like the Road to Heaven: narrow, tortuous, and inadequate >>>>>>>> to many things one can rightly want to know. That’s what other >>>>>>>> sciences are then for. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> But if you claim: The sentences 2a and 2b didn’t give me _any >>>>>>>> information_ about these “events”, and couldn’t have, because they are >>>>>>>> tautologies, I would say you made an error. Of course, the real Nick >>>>>>>> would not say that, so we are all safe. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> The above parable is, of course, about selection. I didn’t say >>>>>>>> anything about heredity. But if I had happened to note that height is >>>>>>>> a fairly heritable trait, I could have spun out a much longer story, >>>>>>>> and defined some Bayesian-posterior conditional probabilities, which >>>>>>>> would be shown to have properties such as: the posterior probability, >>>>>>>> under various ceteris paribus conditions, for a child of a high-jump >>>>>>>> winner to turn out another high-jump winner is higher than for that >>>>>>>> child to turn out a gymnastics winner, and so forth. The amalgamation >>>>>>>> of both of those stories would go in the direction of Fisher’s >>>>>>>> fundamental theorem. It would leave out all the stuff that Fisher >>>>>>>> left out of emphasis in his mad pursuit of his covariance term as an >>>>>>>> analog to the thermodynamic 2nd law (a non-valid analogy, as it turns >>>>>>>> out to be easy to show), and that Price included didactically (and >>>>>>>> here, to EricC’s answer): that I didn’t even mention that the tall >>>>>>>> people might get drafted into wars and put into an infantry to fire >>>>>>>> rifles over tall dijks, while the short people might be drafted into >>>>>>>> Special Forces and sent on missions to attack through underground >>>>>>>> tunnels, and so the number of survivors could depend on many factors >>>>>>>> about which war their country had started, in what theater, and >>>>>>>> against what opposition, etc. These are the world of everything-else >>>>>>>> that Fisher lumped together into “deterioration of the environment”, >>>>>>>> as Steve Frank (and I think also Price) lays out. They are probably >>>>>>>> not well-analogized to “mutation”, but in genetics, mutation also goes >>>>>>>> into the same bin in the Price equation — _outside_ the term of >>>>>>>> Fisher’s fundamental theorem — as the “deterioration” effects. The >>>>>>>> accounting identity is flexible enough that we don’t need analogies to >>>>>>>> use it; we can formulate a version for whatever statistics our >>>>>>>> phenomenon-of-interest supplies. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Anyway; at issue: Seriously, do we have a problem in scientific work, >>>>>>>> of people being unable to gain partial knowledge about phenomena >>>>>>>> through sentences of the kinds 2a, 2b, because they can’t tell the >>>>>>>> difference between those and sentence 1? In the world where I live, I >>>>>>>> don’t see evidence for this mistake. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Eric >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. >>>>>>>> --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >>>>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>>>>>>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,GvQhgG8mgl44zu_Tqszk_wQFcC3LBswQyBsmnoa7umwcI4cM2jGPGmAYotJwNMri0nXMbYayX6uZw5iDa5Mn0zM5Lzi9_LPGwP2Q6dG2zkm1Zw,,&typo=1> >>>>>>>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,23DEBEu6zm1j58j5JsswXw4R4hnyuhIceP4fdD1lMWDKru8V9CE3qD4-RYjtV5Jy9hfTf9uHOrhrlBi_RdYMT7jsteJtGiX2nEMNJisxFedZstuD_29M3FA,&typo=1> >>>>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Ec4s1UwqPKENLyqkHX4Ib_R7EzxFYgc2j7jZdKdzIhORPykt1347aKvaSNnoCQ4Arvb6m2_GLwAwKSl29d-U5DrlMczDc4AHiyyrX-KaGBCrMK9RdKapkw,,&typo=1> >>>>>>>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>>>>>>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>>>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,wWOjZ0Q8WKeZG4U9_UBc_a11JtFDvedQPCTS8FL1Usmbm4F-EJO5IWv_Ignpmf4vTC3CO23cIKVFR_FtMZC8DWD4hyxlN0c7hdOfez8KEw,,&typo=1> >>>>>>>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>>>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. >>>>>>> / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >>>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,kwN2JIDPqIj9UxOfed-aORUfsTjJO1DufRCI0ppHAlXiormfdNykgyPSWLfGlw5BiruUeiaRfbSG8W1tubwpfhSXeau4oRt3nvXTRhaRUQDZn1ezcoU,&typo=1 >>>>>>> to (un)subscribe >>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,kQqYu7I-SVHGT_AjFnLh-XWpOng69axviT6aY8I-XQhC5yk80tH2Ke3qOfyvs8l3RCZeAkeZoIR8TnddaWkwLAXTuoc5QvUR8RvkfEpSQA4,&typo=1 >>>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC >>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,Scpn5Z6qKVVYYNEU1u9CRDlFHpw1wgOZOdNM_lN_6PGv3Act07AQi7IpeyFshe33FmWkTI9CAG8DxLRlNRkf96ox2bRdyp5XC_cgCr8eGG_qVIaFKTZQtQ,,&typo=1 >>>>>>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,NLxA-XaYLw7kDphTWfVR6urQXoJSKIwq0etxJd8ER-oc2b18abBXo9Qeee2OhAh_25GSqFBFw3JCMtIdxzYZ2dNpnjUjp4hMFRrpN814z2HxmIPhG0rfxUF-CQ,,&typo=1 >>>>>>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>>>>> >>>>>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. >>>>>> / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. >>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>>>>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,zA-G5QKVxSPBJmAMP_AJzjZBgLoWIDEwNhUXDpDE-ij5HxoUybuXHsL7hq3XSjcaie2WQdh2hKkTDoZpSv083KPYvq8qWzFQDpts4RVeb0UxKke--9Km&typo=1> >>>>>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,YuoMqhAnODFK7gL8VQKwXiuMZPGgTcNdV3JgB-s9IGxudIzKjP_2nuVrv9XASA2GmtPpabPVY1SoV_P65J8zfqHN98PEQERGPn4JY3pb&typo=1> >>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,RTuBnYPs7aSXh6PCRgC3eltQzFenug0NrzICyO63IHxkmDRWr5as1yZl_aRfSuQdRBjUi6qNKJ8UnKmwUBClw5Wo4YjechJlRTyTQYdOsg,,&typo=1> >>>>>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>>>>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,-sgioWyoJ9Vy0MyLRBgl8ZQKbLOXF9VqGGTEutRE5wJioXcx3l2BEzHSM8_-tGX-WDZdF5260g7Uh0Nx9QOxyVNE4HeeRJ0JlF_paQyH75-KjEXPeg-W9RQpyVuR&typo=1> >>>>>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Nicholas S. Thompson >>>>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology >>>>> Clark University >>>>> [email protected] >>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson&c=E,1,TtGHguBztcaI183g6Goerj-O4VoUmgxpx6RFwy76dnUtcD6dMcEs2GfRLne1FYCYIv9JZQ_Qlp0DYwPIxqwUF0P5yyaODACw5wXNyxIS_4NA3OoABA1XdQ,,&typo=1> >>>>> https://substack.com/@monist >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fsubstack.com%2f%40monist&c=E,1,mMVE-osMfLMKveVRGsDNOLbCQxE2gtCfa9lLV-tXT5ooNLpQD3mqsdWZrYkDx7mKJDcf7XYJbAAs76SMkAt7fhk6zh8pI_xm2uaiDg2olbukzFktpA,,&typo=1> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Nicholas S. 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