I found my previous analysis of the stub installer:
Stub installs without a Firefox profile and not installing on top of an 
existing install (e.g. new installs) have a 90.32% success rate for Firefox 30 
during the first 2 weeks starting the Friday after release.

Robert

----- Original Message -----
> From: "Justin Dolske" <dol...@mozilla.com>
> To: dev-platform@lists.mozilla.org
> Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2014 12:34:53 PM
> Subject: Re: Breakdown of Firefox full installer
> 
> On 10/14/14 2:20 AM, Robert Strong wrote:
> 
> >> * (Countries' average) Internet speed dramatically affected conversion
> >> rates: 70% success in the fastest countries and 30% in the slowest
> > countries.
> > Note that these conversion rates are from download to hitting the first
> > run page and there are several factors that dramatically lower the
> > conversion rate outside of the actual stub installer portion of the
> > process. When just measuring the conversion rate from clicking install in
> > the stub installer the conversion rate is actually close to 90%.
> 
> Interesting; this is what I was asking about in my other post.
> 
> If we're getting ~90% conversion in the stub installer, that implies
> download size improvements may have little effect. A max of the missing
> 10%, and presumably some portion of that is due to other factors.
> 
> Justin
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