I think that even if they stop scaling down size of desktop processors due lack of interest in more performance, someone will continue doing it (even at a much slower rate) for HPC market. No matter how much computing power future processors will have, someone will invent a application that needs more.
2009/4/8 <[email protected]> > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Ken Schuster" <[email protected]> > To: [email protected] > Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2009 2:29:17 PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern > Subject: [Beowulf] Moores Law is dying > > >An IBM researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas. IBM Fellow > Carl Anderson, who > >oversees physical design and tools in its server division, predicted the > end of continued exponential > >scaling down of the size and cost of semiconductors: > > >"There was exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s; there > was exponential > >growth in the automobile industry in the 1930s and 1940s; and there was > exponential growth > >in the performance of aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of > sound. But eventually > >exponential growth always comes to an end," said Anderson. > > Mmm ... he may be right, but I do not like his historical references which > seem > to conflate engineering and economics. Better to refer to the improvement > in > magnets or something similar. But, I like the speed of sound reference > because > it suggests that there is a Moore's Law barrier to be broken. There is a > lot of > talk about "walls" these days ... the memory wall, the power wall, ... but > we with > respect compute power we have a ways to go before we reach the Bremermann > Limit. > > rbw > > > _______________________________________________ > Beowulf mailing list, [email protected] sponsored by Penguin Computing > To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit > http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf > >
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