----- Original Message ----- From: "Ken Schuster" <k...@kschuster.org> To: beowulf@beowulf.org Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2009 2:29:17 PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern Subject: [Beowulf] Moores Law is dying
>An IBM researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas. IB M Fellow Carl >Anderson, who >oversees physical design and tools in its server division, predicted the end >of continued exponential >scaling down of the size and cost of semiconductors: >"There was exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s; there was >exponential >growth in the automobile industry in the 1930s and 1940s; and there was >exponential growth >in the performance of aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of sound. >But eventually >exponential growth always comes to an end," said Anderson. Mmm ... he may be right, but I do not like his historical references which seem to conflate engineering and economics. Better to refer to the improvement in magnets or something similar. But, I like the speed of sound reference because it suggests that there is a Moore's Law barrier to be broken. There is a lot of talk about "walls" these days ... the memory wall, the power wall, ... but we with respect compute power we have a ways to go before we reach the Bremermann Limit. rbw
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