Toon Moene wrote:
Gerry Creager wrote:
I'm running WRF on ranger, the 580 TF Sun cluster at utexas.edu. I
can complete the WRF single domain run, using 384 cores in ~30 min
wall clock time. At the WRF Users Conference last week, the number of
folks I talked to running WRF on workstations or "operationally" on
16-64 core clusters was impressive. I suspect a lot of desktop
weather forecasting will, as you suggest, become the norm. The
question, then, is: Are we looking at an enterprise where everyone
with a gaming machine thinks they understand the model well enough to
try predicting the weather, or are some still in awe of Lorenz'
hypothesis about its complexity?
This is where I think the pluses of the established meteorological
society will be: We know how to establish the quality of meteorological
models, how to compare them, how to dive into their parametrizations to
figure out the relevant differences and to solve the problems.
Because we know this, we will be sought after. However, we will be
working inside the industry that needs this knowlegde, and outside
academia or institutionalized weather centres.
This is already starting to happen. However, what I continue to see is
managers wanting/expecting an absolute answer be generated numerically,
and they're paying less attention to the modelers' concerns about the
"goodness" of the model in certain settings.
As an example, for our evening news programs, we've someone purporting
to be a meteorologist. Over the last 10 years, the proportion of folks
actually trained in meteorology has grown significantly, and talking to
them one-on-one, they tend to recognize the limitations of the models
they present. Yet, rather than saying the temperature tomorrow will be
in a range from 93-98 deg F (with apologies to our brothers across the
Pond) they're generally required to say, "96F" because their managers
believe the public requires an absolute number.
Perhaps, in some industries where statistical analysis is more integral,
we'll see appropriate use of the data...
gerry
--
Gerry Creager -- [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Texas Mesonet -- AATLT, Texas A&M University
Cell: 979.229.5301 Office: 979.458.4020 FAX: 979.862.3983
Office: 1700 Research Parkway Ste 160, TAMU, College Station, TX 77843
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