I never heard of BWET until you mentioned it. Then 5 minutes of research with Google Gemini told me all about it. AI makes research so much easier.
I would think that trading rationally would be better than trading on feelings or randomly, but not really. Rationally I know that prediction markets are more accurate than individual bettors because they form a collective intelligence. In machine learning, a mixture of experts always outperforms its individual members. It's the same with humans, except they all think they are smarter than the market. They have to or it wouldn't work otherwise. If they really were as smart as the market, or knew that they weren't, then they would all make the same predictions. In the stock market, prices converge to the level where half of the market thinks the price will go up and half think it will go down. This means the current price is the best predictor of the future price. Regardless of your betting strategy, your expected winnings are to break even, minus trading and management fees. Long term investments do go up. I haven't touched mine for decades and they are doing quite well. -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] On Mon, Oct 12, 2026, 4:22 PM John Rose via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > On Monday, October 12, 2026, at 4:01 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote: > > If you just picked random stocks for the last several years, you probably > made a profit. But I would be wary of BWET. Kalshi has the odds of the > Strait of Hormuz opening by Nov. 1 at 39%. If that happens, BWET will drop > like a rock. > > > That one is crazy, very unpredictable over there, there's talk about > ground invasion and more countries getting involved. Some of the best > traders trade on feelings. Sometimes I do but it's very difficult to hone > in and couple action at that right moment. This morning I did swap from > Atom crypto to Osmosis on feelings alone and it's +45% now so I'm swapping > out. There is some related logic on money moving into crypto, a potential > big move coming once the Clarity Act is passed, but feelings works whether > it's precognitive or some sort of synthesis. > > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T2784bbfe524b0b93-M2a43b06445a8d3fcc4d1f329> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T2784bbfe524b0b93-M1a9b12d1bf2f82d13e838ad1 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
