Looking at your dmesg anyway, this pops out as interesting:
[ 135.356761] [drm] GMBUS timed out, falling back to bit banging on pin
2 [i915 gmbus vga]
Can you do a fresh boot and look at dmesg before and then after
reproducing the problem. Does the printing of this line correlate to
the issue occurring? If so, that's a strong clue...
** Changed in: xserver-xorg-video-intel (Ubuntu Oneiric)
Status: New => Incomplete
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/754799
Title:
[arrandale] external VGA output doesn't output anything (i686)
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