No change.  Exactly the same thing happens.

** Description changed:

  Tried:
  sudo do-release-upgrade -d
  sudo update-manager -d
  sudo apt-get dist-upgrade
  
  All fail the same way:
  Checking for a new ubuntu release
  Get:1 Upgrade tool signature [198 B]                                          
                                                                      
  Get:2 Upgrade tool [1164 kB]                                                  
                                                                      
  Fetched 1164 kB in 0s (0 B/s)                                                 
                                                                      
  extracting 'oneiric.tar.gz'
  authenticate 'oneiric.tar.gz' against 'oneiric.tar.gz.gpg' 
  
  After that - nothing.  No error message is apparent.
  --- 
  Architecture: amd64
  DistroRelease: Ubuntu 11.04
  GConfNonDefault: /apps/update-manager/check_new_release_ignore=
  NonfreeKernelModules: fglrx
  Package: update-manager-core 1:0.150.3
  PackageArchitecture: amd64
  ProcEnviron:
   SHELL=/bin/bash
   LANG=en_CA.UTF-8
   LANGUAGE=en_CA:en
  ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 2.6.38-11.50-generic 2.6.38.8
  Tags:  natty running-unity
  Uname: Linux 2.6.38-11-generic x86_64
  UpgradeStatus: No upgrade log present (probably fresh install)
  UserGroups: adm admin cdrom dialout lpadmin plugdev sambashare
+ --- 
+ Architecture: amd64
+ DistroRelease: Ubuntu 11.04
+ GConfNonDefault:
+  /apps/update-manager/check_new_release_ignore=
+  /apps/update-manager/window_size=(600,600)
+ NonfreeKernelModules: fglrx
+ Package: update-manager-core 1:0.150.3
+ PackageArchitecture: amd64
+ ProcEnviron:
+  LANGUAGE=en_CA:en
+  PATH=(custom, no user)
+  LANG=en_CA.UTF-8
+  SHELL=/bin/bash
+ ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 2.6.38-11.50-generic 2.6.38.8
+ Tags:  natty
+ Uname: Linux 2.6.38-11-generic x86_64
+ UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to natty on 2009-10-31 (717 days ago)
+ UserGroups:

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/873809

Title:
  Natty to Oneric upgrade fails without error

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