Max wrote:
Hi everyone,
This is not so much of an R question as a statistics question. I
currently work for the largest pre employment screening company in
Canada. Upper management has noticed that noticed that usually a month
or so before any big kind of economic shock happens, that our incoming
files (requests for a background check) jump up or down.
As the company statistician, they've asked me to see if the relationship
is strong enough to put together a product that can be sold to any kind
of firm or organization (brokerages or any kind of investing firm,
federal ministry of finance, statistics canada (like the bureau of stats
in the USA), universities etc)
In Canada on the 10th of every month, statistics canada releases labour
statistics for the previous month. The way CFO sees it, *ideally* on the
(1st to 10th, something like that) every month, the firm I work for
could be releasing data for the rest of the month.
What I'm trying to figure out is if you were in the position of
evaluating the final product for purchase, what kind of information
would make the product credible/viable? Summary statistics? Variance
covariance matrices? Graphs of the data? Cross Correlation matrices for
time series analysis?
It's frustrating because I can see a noticeable relationship between our
file volume and the unemployment rate (in particular,) but I'm not sure
how to appropriately frame it in a way that another statistician/modeler
would want the data.
Why not start with some simple plots of the relationships between your
variables? Once you have a feel for the problem, you can look into
modelling it more formally using a suitable regression model.
--
Gad Abraham
Dept. CSSE and NICTA
The University of Melbourne
Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
web: http://www.csse.unimelb.edu.au/~gabraham
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