Hi Duncan: I think I get you. Once one takes expectations, there is an
underlying assumption about the distribution of X and , in this
problem, we
don't have one so taking expectations has no meaning.
If the log utility "fixing" the problem is purely just a coincidence,
then
it's surely an odd one because log(utility) is often used in economics
for
expressing how investors view the notion of accumulating capital
versus the
risk of losing it. I'm not a economist but it's common for them to
use log utility to prove theorems about optimal consumption etc.
Thanks because I think I see it now by your example below.
Mark
-----Original Message-----
From: Duncan Murdoch [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday,
August 26, 2008 11:26 AM
To: Mark Leeds
Cc: r-help@r-project.org
Subject: Re: [R] Two envelopes problem
On 8/26/2008 9:51 AM, Mark Leeds wrote:
Duncan: I think I see what you're saying but the strange thing is
that if
you use the utility function log(x) rather than x, then the expected
values
are equal.
I think that's more or less a coincidence. If I tell you that the two
envelopes contain X and 2X, and I also tell you that X is 1,2,3,4, or
5, and you open one and observe 10, then you know that X=5 is the
content of the other envelope. The expected utility of switching is
negative using any increasing utility function.
On the other hand, if we know X is one of 6,7,8,9,10, and you observe
a 10, then you know that you got X, so the other envelope contains 2X
= 20, and the expected utility is positive.
As Heinz says, the problem does not give enough information to come to
a decision. The decision *must* depend on the assumed distribution of
X, and the problem statement gives no basis for choosing one. There
are probably some subjective Bayesians who would assume a particular
default prior in a situation like that, but I wouldn't.
Duncan Murdoch
Somehow, if you are correct and I think you are, then taking the
log , "fixes" the distribution of x which is kind of odd to me. I'm
sorry
to
belabor this non R related discussion and I won't say anything more
about
it
but I worked/talked on this with someone for about a month a few
years
ago
and we gave up so it's interesting for me to see this again.
Mark
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
On
Behalf Of Duncan Murdoch
Sent: Tuesday, August 26, 2008 8:15 AM
To: Jim Lemon
Cc: r-help@r-project.org; Mario
Subject: Re: [R] Two envelopes problem
On 26/08/2008 7:54 AM, Jim Lemon wrote:
Hi again,
Oops, I meant the expected value of the swap is:
5*0.5 + 20*0.5 = 12.5
Too late, must get to bed.
But that is still wrong. You want a conditional expectation,
conditional on the observed value (10 in this case). The answer
depends on the distribution of the amount X, where the envelopes
contain X and 2X. For example, if you knew that X was at most 5, you
would know you had just observed 2X, and switching would be a bad
idea.
The paradox arises because people want to put a nonsensical Unif(0,
infinity) distribution on X. The Wikipedia article points out that
it can also arise in cases where the distribution on X has infinite
mean: a mathematically valid but still nonsensical possibility.
Duncan Murdoch
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