Highly off topic. Try StackOverflow. On March 19, 2019 10:42:24 AM PDT, Philip Rhoades <p...@pricom.com.au> wrote: >People, > >I have only a general statistics understanding and have never actually >used Bayes' Theorem for any real-world problem. My interest lies in >developing some statistical approach for addressing the subject above >and it seems to me that BT is what I should be looking at? However, >what I am specifically interested in is how such a work-up would be >developed for a year-on-year situation eg: > >I think it is likely that TEHTC could be triggered by a multi-gigaton >release of methane from the Arctic Ocean and the Siberian Permafrost in > >any Northern Hemisphere Summer from now on (multiple physical and >non-physical, human positive feedback loops would then kick in). > >So, say my estimate (Bayesian Prior) is that for this coming (2019) NHS > >the chance of this triggering NOT occurring is x%. The manipulation is > >then done to calculate the posterior for 2019 - but for every >successive >year (given the state of the world), isn't it true that the chance of a > >triggering NOT occurring in the NHS MUST go down? - ie it is just an >argument about the scale of the change from year to year? > >It seems to be that the posterior for one year becomes the prior for >the >next year? Once the prior gets small enough people won't bother with >the calculations anyway . . > >Does anyone know of any existing work on this topic? I want to write a > >plain-English doc about it but I want to have the stats clear in my >head >. . > >Thanks, > >Phil.
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