Hello,
I am trying to answer the question:
"What is the probability of a certain day's low forecast (of 21) being the
month's overall low?"
I decided to attempt it in R
Searching pointed me to extreme value analysis.
I created a csv file of the last 8 years lows for the month:
year month's low
2009 10.04
2010 18.493
2011 7.547
2012 15.008
2013 19.283
2014 9.508
2015 2.55
2016 20.1
I loaded "extremes"
install.packages("extRemes")
library(extRemes)
I successfully loaded the csv file.
I initially started with fitting to a Gumbel
fit2 <- fevd(PeakingLowTemp,FebruaryEVA,type="Gumbel")
Now for my question - unfortunately the examples I am finding all deal with
maximums -
meaning maximum high temps and probability of exceeding and maximum
rainfall and probability of exceeding
I need to fit the lows (minimums) and calculate the probability of being
less than a temp.
Can you help guide me with the remainder of my setup
Thanks!!
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