Dear R users, suppose we have a random walk such as: v_t+1 = v_t + e_t+1
where e_t is a normal IID noise pocess with mean = m and standard deviation = sd and v_t is the fundamental value of a stock. Now suppose I want a trading strategy to be: x_t+1 = c(v_t â p_t) where c is a costant. I know, from the paper where this equations come from (Farmer and Joshi, The price dynamics of common trading strategies, 2001) that the induced price dynamics is: r_t+1 = âa*r_t + a*e_t + theta_t+1 and p_t+1 = p_t +r_t+1 where r_t = p_t â p_t-1 , e_t = v_t â v_t-1 and a = c/lambda (lambda is another constant). How can I simulate the equations I have just presented? I have good confidence with R for statistical analysis, but not for simulation therefore I apologize for my ignorance. What I came up with is the following: ##general settings c<-0.5 lambda<-0.3 a<-c/lambda n<-500 ## Eq.12 (the v_t random walk) V_init_cond<-0 Et<-ts(rnorm(n+100,mean=0,sd=1)) Vt<-Et*0 Vt[1]<-V_init_cond+Et[1] for(i in 2:(n+100)) { Vt[i]<-Vt[i-1]+Et[i] } Vt<-ts(Vt[(length(Vt)-n+1):length(Vt)]) plot(Vt) ## Eq.13 (the strategy) Xt_init_cond<-0 Xt<-Xt_init_cond*0 Xt[2]<-c(Vt[1]-Pt[1]) for(i in 2:(n)){ Xt[i]<-c(Vt[i-1]-Pt[i-1]) } Xt<-ts(Xt[(length(Xt)-n+1):length(Xt)]) plot(Xt) ## Eq. 14 (pice dynamics) P_init_cond<-0 Pt<-Rt*0 Pt[1]<-P_init_cond+Rt[1] for(i in 2:(n+100)) { Pt[i]<-Pt[i-1]+Rt[i] } Pt<-ts(Pt[(length(Pt)-n+1):length(Pt)]) plot(Pt) Rt_init_cond<-0 Rt<-Rt_init_cond*0 Rt[2]<- -a*Rt[1]+a*Et[1]+e[2] for(i in 2:(n)){ Rt[i]<- -a*Rt[i-1]+a*Et[i-1]+e[i] } Rt<-ts(Rt[(length(Rt)-n+1):length(Rt)]) plot(Rt) I donât think the code above is correct, and I donât even know if this is the approach I have to take. Any suggestion is warmly appreciated. thanks, Simone Gogna [[alternative HTML version deleted]]
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