Robin Lock at St Lawrence has done this for hockey, see
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/faq.html
As I recall, he has a poisson regression model with parameters for
offense and defense, and perhaps home 'field' advantage.
I confess I am skeptical that this is the right approach for football
- teams adjust their strategy and tactics as a function of the
opponent and the current match score. Teams are trying to maximize
the probability of getting a result, not the probability of scoring
goals. The poisson model corresponds to a constant rate for scoring.
albyn
Quoting kerry1912 <kerry1...@hotmail.com>:
I am working on predicitng the scores for a days worth of matches of team
sports. I have already collected data for the teams for the season we are
concentrating on.
I have been fitting poisson models for football games and have worked out
what model is best and which predictor variables are most important.
We would now like to predict the probability distribution for the scores for
each team. eg. What is the probability of Manchester United vs Chelsea
ending 1-1?
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