Very insightful. I think you could probably write a paper on this topic.
Regards,
George Toft
On 12/11/2023 1:40 PM, David Schwartz via PLUG-discuss wrote:
On Dec 11, 2023, at 6:09 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss
<[email protected]> wrote:
I see AI being a windfall in the near term. Example would be an
affiliate marketer could use AI to write articles for his/her blog.
The article wold need to be rewritten, however it would be so much
faster and potentially more comprehensive, If one can teach AL
modern SEO then that person could rock!!
It’s already nearly impossible to find anything useful on Google due
to abuse of tricks people use to get their web pages found by the
search engines, and there are plenty of tools that are teaching people
how to do this using AI tools like ChatGPT already that are only going
to make it a couple orders of magnitude worse.
I’m in a class now that teaches a different approach that also uses AI
for content, but it feeds the search engines what they’re looking for,
not the same crap everybody else is feeding them, and it works really
well. It looks similar to SEO, but it takes a totally different
approach. It’s a manual method of finding keywords, with AI used to
help write content. If AI could be trained to do the whole process,
then they’d use it for that as well, but I don’t see that as something
we’ll see anytime soon.
Suffice it to say it’s a process that looks for what’s missing, which
isn’t something automation is very good at — you’d end up with a huge
list of pretty much irrelevant stuff, or random selections from such a
list. It takes a little work to figure it out yourself. I have no idea
how you’d train an AI to do it.
There seems to be plenty of people using AI to create windfalls by
cranking out content in seconds that historically has required weeks
or months or longer for people to do. What it’s doing is putting
ghostwriters out of business, and increasing demand for editors.
I watched a video about a 20 yo kid who has been using ChatGPT to
crank out books in a particular niche for about 18 months. He has
created a particular brand and creates books under that brand, and has
published several hundred now. He says he’s already made over $1M, and
can sell his biz for at least that much. Of course, he teaches a class
on how to do it. The ultimate outcome here is the same as with SEO:
markets are going to be flooded with generic material and it will be
impossible to find anything specific to your needs.
I’m working on an app that generates personalized Guided Meditations
(GMs). It does NOT use AI because AI isn’t needed, but that doesn’t
stop people from telling me it’s a fool’s errand because there are
already thousands of GM apps on the market, the vast majority of which
are free. There’s a simple reason for this: every course on app
development typically includes an exercise to build a virtual MP3
player. So people build it, then think, “Ahh, I can use this to load
up meditations and then offer it up as a meditation app!” Another
exercise lets you build a recorder app that creates … yes, you guessed
it … MP3 files.
Last count there were over 6000 of these “meditation apps” aka
“virtual iPods” loaded up with prerecorded personal meditations, and
over half were from people in India. So what you have is a market
flooded with generic GMs by people who aren’t very well-trained at
creating them, about topics that are of interest to those individuals,
and no way to search them for specific attributes. They started out
simply as a programming exercise, but the collective effect is an
entire market niche flooded with content and no way to search for
anything specific. This is not an “AI problem” but a scalibility
problem. Maybe we can use AI to fix it, but I think that’s a waste of
resources with very little return.
The problem with flooding the market with stuff like this, be it web
pages, books, meditation apps, videos, or whatever, is that there’s
nothing in place to help you sift through these huge haystacks for a
few needles that represent the intersection of qualities YOU ARE MOST
INTERESTED IN. This is the same problem that’s affecting Google
because of SEO. It will inevitably lead to the same problems in any
market that has been flooded with content — there’s no way to find
stuff quickly and efficiently that fits your needs other than building
a “better search engine”, right?
What we’re doing is building huge digital garbage dumps and telling
people looking for specific things, “Hey, dig away!”
SEO has broken the internet, and AI will only make things worse. It’s
a HUGE garbage dump or warehouse, and nobody has the time nor the
interest to waste trying to find specific things buried there.
But what if it was quicker to just create what you need in 5 minutes
instead of searching for it in a huge warehouse?
Here’s the thing I see this situation inevitably leading to: people
who love to read will soon be able to go to something like a vending
machine where you give it a few details about yourself and what you
like and dislike, push a button, and it generates a personalized
eBook, meditation, video, or whatever you want, tailored just for you.
It’s a one-off thing and yours to do what you want with it. Why not
clothing? Or blog entries?
People keep speaking of this in terms of ways to replace what people
are already doing. But these approaches are limited by our current
abilities and resources. That’s not very useful and it’s not where AI
is going to really shine. Why use AI to create more of the same
garbage that nobody can find? Google has lost its ability to find
stuff, and has turned into a way of generating money simply from
people searching for stuff that’s getting harder and harder to find,
making their search sessions longer and hence generating more profits
for Google. At some point, people will realize it’s a huge waste of time!
What people are missing about the value of AI is that it’s going to
allow the large-scale creation of PERSONALIZED CONTENT.
This is the beginning of mass customization and personalization of
virtually everything!
The digital world will be first, and before long it will lead to using
3D printing to create personalized physical stuff as well.
For example, I have arthritis in my thumbs, and it makes it hard to
pick up normal drinking glasses. I prefer those with a handle, but I
like one that’s big enough to fit my four fingers in so I don’t need
to use my thumb for leverage. Lots of mugs have small handles on them
that are hard to get even two fingers into. Some are larger, and some
handle shapes work better than others.
However, consumers are stuck buying things that the manufacturers have
decided to make based on a lot of criteria that have nothing to do
with you or me. But we might want a specific configuration. So why not
be able to order glasses and mugs with a specific design, including a
handle that fits what fits us best? Or no handle at all?
See how this starts to shift the whole world of mass marketing to
personalized made-on-demand goods and services? AI will help with some
of it, and isn’t needed for a lot either. But given our current ways
of doing things in the world, it’s impossible — so nobody is doing it.
No jobs will be “lost” with this new approach to personalized stuff.
In fact, lots of new jobs will be created.
In the broader scheme of things, think of the publishing biz as a way
to create personalized “fantasy novels” or even movies that cater to
an individual's quirks. Who’s doing this now? NOBODY! Entirely new
jobs will be created!
This is basically why Blockbuster went bust — because their business
model was to set up big warehouses in different places around town and
people would go in and browse for what they wanted. Netflix came along
and let you browse on the web from home or the office, and they
delivered your order to your door — a more personalized offering. Now
you can browse and click a button and start watching what you want
instantly. Netflix still exists, but they don’t ship out disks in the
mail any more.
From another angle, consider something where you take a test on some
topic and then you’re given a lesson (or series of them) designed to
not just reinforce what you already know, but with additional material
that you’re weak in or is the “next step” in your training. If you
have consistent trouble with particular topics, it will give you more
exercises in those areas and provide additional help where it’s
needed. It would work more like a personal tutor than a teacher
presenting material based on a one-size-fits-all classroom setting.
This is creating a totally new realm that is far too inefficient and
expensive for any individual to do. No jobs will be lost because
nobody is doing it now, nor can anybody do it on any sort of scale.
The jobs that will be lost are the ones that are doing repetative jobs
making or doing the same things over and over again — jobs that do not
lend themselves to personalized or customized products. Sure, there
are lots of jobs like that, but so what? Automation is already
eliminating a lot of them, not AI. And there will always be a market
for "jellybeans”.
Consider a future where most of what you can buy online is
personalized to your specific needs. Not like ordering a pair of shoes
or clothing from a preset list of sizing options, but where you enter
your physical measurements and other details and get something that
fits like a glove made just for you. Now extend this to most other
things you consume or use regularly, especially those that “don’t
quite fit”.
-David Schwartz
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