On Tue, Aug 29, 2006 at 11:24:21AM +0100, John Forbes wrote: > On Tue, 29 Aug 2006 02:17:43 +0100, Digital Image Studio > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > My prediction is that anything beyond 10MP in APS format will yield > > very diminishing returns, noise and dynamics will become more of a > > problem to control (that's simply tied with the physics of > > semiconductors) and lens performance will become more of an issue. APS > > formats will now stagnate IMHO. > > In much the same way there was littl real improvement in film emulsions > over the past twenty years. But that didn't make film obsolete - it > needed a totally different technology to do that. > > I suspect that further improvements will be in small increments, but that > the (relatively) low cost and small size of APS-based cameras will ensure > their survival for the next ten yeras or so. > > John
I'm sure we'll see APS sensors survive considerably longer than that. I don't subscribe to the doom-and-gloom scenario that we've reached the limits of signal-to-noise ratio, or other physically-based limits; we're still some way away from counting individual photons, and the semiconductor industry as a whole is currently applying vast resources to the issues of power consumption and heat (and noise) generation. In five years time I expect to see at least an order of magnitude improvement in noise control, which would allow for 16-bit sensors. -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List [email protected] http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
