The same things that make any computer obsolete:
1. Memory capacity
2. Storage capacity
3. Processing speed
4. Form factor
5. Paradigm
I'll have to disagree a bit here. Computers become obsolete
primarily because their expectations have been increased. Both through
expanded useage (beeps -> sounds -> mp3's -> LQ-video -> DVD -> HDTV), and
by somewhat related forced expandage through bloatware (in winders-speak:
DOS -> win95 -> win2k -> winxp). The ol' 386 with 5.25" floppies still
runs DOS or linux kernel 2.0 just as well as it did then. We just expect
computers to do more now than then.
The difference with the camera is that most of the improvements in
digital cameras in the last 10 years have come from improving the sensors,
and the interraction with the data. The data interraction has primarily
followed the computers' improvements, but has now reached "critical mass."
Being able to take thousands of pictures on a card vs. hundreds is mostly
irrelevant... there are enough pictures now.
The sensor improvements have largely petered out... they are
approaching the physical limitations of collecting light. The physics
of producing better sensors are not the same as those of producing better
computer processors, but the economics are. Cameras are ruled by the laws
of physics and optics... both of which seem to have settled on 35mm-ish
sized frame for typical photos.
I'm not saying that there will not be better cameras to come....
there certainly will. Unless the size of the pictures (read: sensor
resolution) increases substantially, there will not be a really pressing
need for newer storage/transfer technologies. Will bluetooth file
transfers from your camera be convenient?... sure. Will it be necessary
to transfer 10x filesizes? Not likely.
Marketing will continually come up with ways to try to convince
people they need to upgrade. When enough smallish reasons add up (10MP
vs. 6MP, smaller, lighter, bluetooth, faster), it will be worthwhile.
The biggest problem will be repair. It's no longer cost-effective
to repair an older unit. As current DSLRs fail, they will simply be
tossed...
Anyway, I'm probably full of crap... it happens routinely... :)
-Cory
--
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* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
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