Rob wrote: > I'll make a prediction and say that MF digital formats will not prove to be > viable to manufacture in the near future, particularly when full frame 35mm > imaging sensors peak at 20-25MP. There just simply won't be a sufficiently > large market in +35mm formats to justify spending cash there, we might end up > with one or two low volume high cost specialist vendors in the market but no > more. If Pentax tries to shimmy up that pole they will go the same way as > Leica > and Contax.
Maybe, but it still depend on price developments for sensors. History tells us that any mass market comodity with low yield rate and high cost eventually drop in price. It depends on the price difference between 35mm sized sensors and larger ones. Even 35mm full frame sensors won't have a future unless the price gap to the APS sized sensors become smaller. Time will tell.... Anyway, according to Pentax they will market a MF based DSLR (almost certainly with the 645 mount) withing a year (regardless of demand it seems!). This will be Pentax pro offering. Below it will be a k-mount prosumer body that might have a full frame sensor (depending on how you interpret the interview). The bottom, entry level, will be *ist D variations. Pentax may of course change plans but it seems that for next two years or so there are two DSLR's coming from Pentax appealing to the enthusiast a K-mount prosumer bodu and a 645 mount professional body. > Witness similar audio industry transitions, vinyl recordings to CD then CD to > DVD-A, SACD etc. It can be plainly seen that the higher quality recording > options are going nowhere in the market, yes they potentially offer better > reproduction but not significant enough that the public are supporting them. > They are dead in the water because the wider public is satisfied with the > audio > capabilities of the CD medium. This same market saturation vs resolution vs > consumer need brick wall will apply to digital cameras shortly also. It isn't really comparable. High-end DSLR will never apeal to the masses anyway, regardless of if it is MF or 35mm based. A new recording medium must sell to the masses as well in order to be viable at all; The high-end audio community cannot alone float a whole new standard. We are talking hardware here anyway. People are indeed buying outrageously expensive CD players whose sound differences from moderately priced ones are so small that most of us can't hear it! P�l
