It's come through all four times for me.
If there is a price war, then smaller companies that derive the greater portion of their income form photo gear (e..g Pentax) would suffer more. The electronics giants that Keppler talks about would suffer less since they have other product lines to subsidize loss leaders. In some respects, Canon _is_ one of those big diversified giants. I just did a quick check on gross revenues and on Hoovers.com and found Sony with 72 billion, Canon with 33 billion, while Nikon and Pentax came in at 4.7 and 1.2 billion respectively. (Couldn't find Panasonic.)
The fact that Cousina has been success in identifying and exploiting niches in the market is good on them - but I don't think that the Cousina model would apply across the industry, so I don't think one can extrapolate too far from their experience.
Otherwise, I don;t know that the pricing model Keppler lays out is so radically different than the old film based SLR model. I seem to recal Paal saying over and over that top end SLR's were loss leaders, but made up for it by promoting the sale of high end and profitable lenses. That doesnot seem much different than the DSLR syndrome that Keppler lays out.
The one thing in the article that gave me pause is the potential limit on megapixel density. In most cases the relatively low resolution of Digital's is not important - there is not that much info out there to capture. But in some cases, it is. I see a big difference in 6x7 shots compared to the *ist-D in terms of detail when shooting a subject that has enough detail to push the limits. I suspect I'd see less of a boost, but an improvement still, using larger format.
Digital gains a lot in image quality with better acuatance and less noise than film, but it still will need to improve resolving power to match film in some applications. My own guess what that a 30-36 megapixel sensor could produce results on par with 6x7 film, and was hoping that could be achieved in a 36x24mm sensor - which seems unlikely based on Kepplers remarks.
- MCC
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Mark Cassino Photography
Kalamazoo, MI
www.markcassino.com
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----- Original Message ----- From: "Alin Flaider" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2005 1:41 AM
Subject: Keppler's take on DSLR prices drop
I have re-subscribed hoping this post will make it on the list. I insist not because I share Mr. Keppler's view but he seems to still have industry connections and there may be more between the lines.
Among the interesting topics: DSLR price drop worries the industry, film survives through hobbyists, good, expensive glass is the surviving path for manufacturers, EVF DSLRs might be behind the corner, etc.
Toying with the Pricing Disaster: http://www.photoreporter.com/2005/02-07/features/the_way_it_is.html
Servus, Alin
