----- Original Message ----- From: "Butch Black"
Subject: Re: Film may not be dead.....
My theory (and you can say you heard it here first) is in 4-5 years, if the drug store and big box 1hr labs can't figure out how to get more people to print more of their digital prints (I think the current consensus is that less then 5% of all digital prints make it to paper in all forms. WW and others, correct me if I'm wrong here) they will start pulling out labs.
I think you are pretty close to correct.
At the volumes I am now projecting, I suspect that photofinishing will be an unprofitable venture within the next couple of years, and will also lose the retail draw that grocery stores use it for, putting up with it being a loss leader.
When it is neither profitable, nor a consumer magnet, the big boys will stop playing the game.
Whether they will leave anyone behind to pick up the mess they leave behind is anyones guess.
My guess is that they won't, and 5 years from now, if you want a real photograph (as opposed to a dye sub or inkjet print) it will be a difficult commodity to locate locally for a lot of people.
Some places will be less affected than others, of course, but a lot of small markets are going to suffer,more than they already are.
William Robb
