On 10/04/2020 8:57 am, Roger Clarke wrote: > So the first thing that's done is problem-analysis.
Roger I agree with your missive, but would like add to the above comment. Before you can analyse a problem you have to make sure you are trying to solve the right problem. In the case of a government the problem is more than understanding how a virus might spread. The applied science (i.e. theory) of epidemics is only a very small part of understanding how a specific virus will spread in a specific country with a specific health system, specific rules and regulations governing behaviours and the impact on the economy and people. The models that Dr Jansson is comparing don't even include the capacity of a health system to deal with the case load of SARS-CV2, never mind all the other factors. The graphs produced by the models Dr Jansson compares could have been drawn on the back of an envelop. That's because they are theory. What is missing from the models is all the messy things that is needed in real-life models. Many such models are referenced here: https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/forecasting The reality is that governments are not free to make decisions about the spread of the virus alone. The government's problem is how to achieve multiple objectives given multiple constrains. To solve this problem needs multiple, interconnected models fed by real-life, current data. It also needs the government to realise that it has a control problem, not a medical/health problem or an economic problem, although both are involved. To control something you need to understand it. To understand it you need to describe it. A description is a model, whether it is a written description, a graph, a mathematical model, or statistics. The skill is in creating and using the right models Which means that when Roger says > At the end, Jansson write: > > > ... I would caution against relying too heavily on modelling ... > > Well said, that man! I'd say, models are critically important, the danger is relying on the wrong modelling. -- Regards brd Bernard Robertson-Dunn Canberra Australia email: [email protected] _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
