Buried on the health.gov.au site is a link to the Doherty Institute report.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf There's a lot more information in that report, but its value is debatable. That's probably why Scotty's presentation focused on "flattening the curve". Looking at the references, it would appear that a lot of the models and data are based upon the outbreak originating in Wuhan, China as well as modelling work done by others. At a first glance, there is nothing in this report that could not have been obtained by reading about the other modelling, especially the Imperial College work. There is nothing particularly Australian specific in it. The danger is that Australia's uniqueness (a country well isolated by geography, and a few, well separated large cities and huge expanses or rural and regional areas) will make our situation and experience somewhat different. The reality is that the government probably didn't actually need all this modelling. Most of the actions (quarantine, close down non-essential businesses and limit interpersonal contact, and implement major financial and economic support for business and individuals) are obvious and the evidence in other countries is that they work. We were a bit late in getting there but we were lucky. As I said in my earlier post, it's what happens next that matters and the Doherty Institute report doesn't try to answer that question. It's been hard so far, it's going to be much harder next, especially as what we do (and can do) depends on what other countries do. Maybe someone should do some global modelling. -- Regards brd Bernard Robertson-Dunn Canberra Australia email: [email protected] _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
