https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.70365

*Authors: *Athar Hussain, Muhammad Ali Khan, Muhammad Shoaib

First published: *27 March 2026*

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70365

*Abstract*
Malaria is a disease that affects people throughout the global South and
has a major impact on public health. The distribution of disease is
influenced by global warming. Proposed solar geoengineering (SG), through
aerosol injection, is a hypothetical climate intervention intended to
temporarily counteract global warming by reflecting and absorbing a portion
of incoming solar radiation. Using Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) as
a quantitative measure of malaria transmission under the G6sulfur scenario
of SG, this study investigates the projected spatio-temporal
characteristics of malaria distribution in seven of South Asia's most
climate vulnerable countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran,
Nepal and Pakistan). Furthermore, for comparative analysis, future
projections of EIR are examined under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
scenario (SSP585) without SG. According to the outcomes of a dynamical
malaria model, the spatial distribution patterns of EIR under the SG
G6sulfur scenario show a general decline in the distribution of malaria
over South Asia between 2020 and 2090 as compared to the SSP585 scenario.
Malaria's regional spatial distribution is expected to significantly reduce
over Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. While the decline in EIR is less
severe, it is still noticeable in Afghanistan, Iran and Nepal.

*Source: RMeTS*

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