https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901126000626

*Authors: *Benjamin K. Sovacool, Livia Fritz, Chad M. Baum, Ramit Debnath,
Roberto Cantoni, Francesc Martori

*26 March 2026*

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104367

*Highlights*
•Engages 323 participants across 44 focus groups in 22 countries.

•Explores imagined futures where climate interventions are widely
implemented in 2030.

•Identifies 299 distinct futures, each characterized by an imagined
newspaper headline, actor(s), and outcome.

•Reveals an extraordinary diversity and multiplicity of futures.

•Underscores the plurality of futures, reflecting the interplay of
cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors.

*Abstract*
In the context of increasing global warming, alternative climate
intervention strategies are gaining prominence in policy, scientific,
media, and public discourse. This study provides novel insights into public
perceptions of these interventions, and the foreseeable changes for the
near future, through a global foresight exercise involving 44 focus groups
across 22 countries, evenly divided between the Global North (e.g.
Australia, Germany, United States) and the Global South (e.g., Brazil,
India, South Africa). Engaging 323 participants, the study explored
imagined futures where climate interventions—such as solar radiation
modification and large-scale carbon removal—are widely implemented in 2030.
The participants generated 299 distinct futures, each characterized by an
imagined newspaper headline, key actor(s), events and specific outcomes. In
this paper, these futures are analyzed across the dimensions of technology,
societal impact, actor networks, and in terms of spatial and scalar
considerations. The findings reveal an extraordinary diversity of futures,
ranging from optimistic futures of technological innovation and disease
eradication to pessimistic futures of ecological disruption, the spread of
cancer, and social inequities. This study underscores the plurality of
perspectives on climate intervention futures, reflecting the interplay of
cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors. By illuminating the
breadth of futures, these findings provide timely insights to inform the
development of inclusive, culturally sensitive climate policies at a
critical juncture in the global response to climate change.

*Source: ScienceDirect *

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