Michał Górny posted on Thu, 09 Aug 2012 09:24:26 +0200 as excerpted:

> On Thu, 9 Aug 2012 06:57:17 +0000 (UTC)
> Duncan <1i5t5.dun...@cox.net> wrote:
> 
>> So I really expect people to be switching to systemd 2-3 years from
>> now, and that it'll be the gentoo default in 3-5 years, tho openrc will
>> almost certainly be supported in /some/ form, at least comparable to
>> the kde- sunset overlay and probably officially, at least five years
>> out.  But a decade out, all bets are off!
> 
> Do you really believe that 2-3 years from now systemd will still exist?
> Not systemkit, then syskit, then ...
Were any of the *kits, etc, Lennart projects?  IDR reading about pulse, 
anyway, switching names.

Meanwhile, Isn't systemd close to two years old now, already?  I'm about 
a month behind on LWN, but I've kept up with my other community news and 
haven't read anything of a change yet, and it'd take /some/ discussion 
and then time to switch to some other name/framework, etc.  Given I've 
not read of any such thing yet, and I suspect Lennart would attempt a 
veto, in practice I think we're locked in to nearing two years anyway, at 
least a year.

Plus, they're still in the build-up phase with systemd ATM, integrating 
things like logging (binary-format, no less! <shudder>!), etc.  I'd 
expect them to play with their toys a bit before getting bored and 
throwing them out of the tram. =:^)

But in the 3-5 year timeframe I think it's possible.  Thus the mention of 
hal.  And certainly out beyond five years... FLOSS predictions of any 
sort tend to get fuzzy out past five years; given what seems to be 3-5 
year worldview changer event period, but a built-in system reaction time 
buffer that never-the-less gives you /some/ prediction safety out to five 
years, /maybe/ seven for the real broad strokes.

-- 
Duncan - List replies preferred.   No HTML msgs.
"Every nonfree program has a lord, a master --
and if you use the program, he is your master."  Richard Stallman


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