Fantastic analysis Jukka. Fan-freaking-tastic.
Cheers, Chris ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Chris Mattmann, Ph.D. Chief Architect Instrument Software and Science Data Systems Section (398) NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena, CA 91109 USA Office: 168-519, Mailstop: 168-527 Email: chris.a.mattm...@nasa.gov WWW: http://sunset.usc.edu/~mattmann/ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Adjunct Associate Professor, Computer Science Department University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ -----Original Message----- From: Jukka Zitting <jukka.zitt...@gmail.com> Reply-To: "general@incubator.apache.org" <general@incubator.apache.org> Date: Monday, October 12, 2015 at 2:13 PM To: general <general@incubator.apache.org> Subject: Re: Incubation capacity >Hi, > >On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 2:50 PM Marvin Humphrey <mar...@rectangular.com> >wrote: >> On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 8:08 AM, Jukka Zitting <ju...@zitting.name> >>wrote: >> > It sounds like ruminations about the Incubator are on the increase >>again, >> >> I hope that we can make use of some of this bursting energy and channel >>it >> into incremental improvements. >> >> The Incubator is a stable platform, and it has been functioning well by >> historical terms, and with blessedly low drama compared to a few years >>ago. >> My impression is that frustration with the institutional resistance of >> Incubator to change is skewing impressions of how well it is doing its >>job of >> incubating podlings. > >Yes, we're far from the drama of 2011. > >> > I believe the way the Incubator is organized sets an upper bound on >>the >> > number of podlings it can effectively manage. Based on experience and >> > historical data (http://incubator.apache.org/history/ *) I believe >>this >> > limit is somewhere around 30 podlings. >> >> I'm curious, Jukka. Why 30? > >I don't have a firm theory on why this is happening, only some key >observations: > >* The entry rate of new podlings has been amazingly constant >throughout the existence of the Incubator even though the total number >of open source projects has been growing exponentially for much of >this time. > >* The "limit" was first reached in 2006 during which the board first >pushed back on Incubator reports and the current monthly 1/3 reporting >schedule was adopted and the process of retiring dormant podlings was >adopted. > >* The Incubator stayed at or slightly above the 30 podlings limit >until around mid-2010 after which many podlings started getting stuck, >leading to the crisis of late 2011. > >* We solved that problem with a concentrated effort in 2012 that >brought the Incubator back to around 30 active podlings, a level that >stayed mostly stable for the next two years. > >* The number of current podlings is again growing, and some of the >issues that have shown up recently remind me of the problems seen five >years ago. > >It could be that I'm just selectively interpreting history to match my >theory, but from a systems perspective it does look as if the >Incubator indeed has a structural bandwidth cap that probably feeds >into and limits the entry rate. > >> What are the scarce resources? > >Some possible answers: > >* Mailing list. There is only so much general@ traffic that a single >IPMC member can reasonably process without starting to skip >significant parts. > >* Mentors. The growth rate of the IPMC is fairly constant and, with >most members becoming inactive over time, I believe the number of >active mentors has not grown too much over the years. > >* Chair/Report Manager. Someone still needs to pay attention to >everything that's going around, which I believe you and all other >recent chairs agree is a daunting task. > >One could run some numbers to better quantify the above possibilities. > >> And how is this supposed degradation manifesting? > >The noise got loud enough to wake me up. :-) I don't have hard >numbers, but we do have a couple of recent failures and it sounds like >some people are getting concerned, which does remind me of early 2011. >Of course the one thing you can learn from history is that things are >never quite the same. > >> Additionally, I'll note that while we're at 43 or so podlings right >>now, we >> have multiple podlings about to retire (Droids, Kalumet, likely >>Corinthia) and >> others about to graduate (Kylin, Groovy). > >Right, this might be just a fluke. > >BR, > >Jukka Zitting > >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >To unsubscribe, e-mail: general-unsubscr...@incubator.apache.org >For additional commands, e-mail: general-h...@incubator.apache.org >
