>From The Guardian, 16 June, report of Henley Centre for Forecasting
research on impacts of internet.
The Guardian Wednesday June 16 1999
Internet 'heralds new industrial revolution researchers say
Technology is still in its infancy but will cause the biggest social
upheaval since the 18th century,
Stuart Millar
The internet is driving the biggest
social and economic revolution
since the 18th century, according
to research published today.
Thirty years on from the birth of
the internet, the ferocious pace of
change it has started will have as
great an impact on society as
factory processing and the steam
engine during the industrial
revolution, the report claims.
The research, carried out by the
Henley Centre for Forecasting,
suggests that the intern^ is already
having far-reachthg effects on
everyday life, with six times more
men than women taking to
shopping in cyberspace.
"The internet offers a male
paradise for shopping, being
quicker, less overt, more
anonymous and currently offering
products more suitable for
them,"says the report.
Electronic retailing will be the
main growth area for the internet,
according to the research. While
most people see it primarily as a
source of information or a communications
tool, more than 20% believe that on-
line shopping will be its main
application within five years. At the
moment, only 20/Q of men and 6%
of women are concerned about the
potential for on-line fraud.
The research, commissioned by
computing firm Cisco Systems,
challenges conventional
wisdom by claiming that the
importance of the world wide
web has been "under-hyped" .
James Richardson, the company's
president, said: "If you thought the
technology bubble was about to
burst, think again. Everything you
ever thought possible through
internet working will pale into
insignificance compared with what
is to come in the next few years.'
The key to the internet's success
has been the speed with which the
technology become available.
Cisco estimates that there will be
6,600 new users every day this year
- a population equivalent to that of
Britain going on-line every six
months.
The report warns that the internet
is only at the "innovation" stage of
its development. Advances in
technology must move in the same
direction as consumer needs. There
is a feeling that people are
overwhelmed by the amount of
information available.
The report also predicts that the
internet will only achieve its full
potential if alternatives to the
personal computer are developed,
allowing greater access from home.
Although the proportion of homes
with PCs rose from 10% in 1995 to
30% last year, this expansion is
likely to reach a ceiling at about
40% in the next five years, and is
heavily concentrated in middle
class homes.
Leader comment page 19
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This is the leader comment:
Coming your way soon
But it shouldn't be just an American show
The internet revolution will have as great an
impact on society as the industrial
revolution in only a third of the time,
according to a report by the Henley Centre.
This is not an exaggeration, even though
over 80 per cent of the population are still
not wired up to the revolution which is still
barely five years old. The report makes
sweeping predictions that could easily
come true - that workers will revert to
moving from job to job rather than staying
with one firm, and that men not women will
do most of the on-line shopping. The
authors claim the internet is being under-
hyped in terms of the impact it will have on
our lives.
That too is not an exaggeration. Five
years on, every company knows that it must
embrace the internet - to sell to customers
and converge with suppliers - or die.
People watch askance as everything that
can be digitised (films, music paintings,
knowledge, speech etc) is being turned into
the Is and 0s of computer code for instant
transmission down telephone wires or in
wireless form. Economics has been
transformed by the way digitisation offers
limitless output at no extra cost while
slashing prices to cut out the middleman.
Today's report is also a wake up call.
The internet is an American monopoly
enabling its economy to expand by 4 to 5%
without (thus far) generating infla_ tion.
US companies make nearly all of the
software and the hardware for the internet
and are years ahead in applying its benefits.
Not for nothing was the report ("The impact
of the internet economy in Europe")
commissioned by a US firm, Cisco, which
has been hugely successful in building the
internet's infrastructure.
Europe has some world-beating sectors
in the IT revolution (like mobile phones
and wireless technology) but not enough of
them. And developing countries are in
danger of slipping further behind and
adding information poverty to malnutrition
and financial poverty. Yet the new
techniques of wireless and satellite
technology could enable them to leapfrog
over an industrial revolution that has still to
reach many of them. Europe too has time
to get back into the race. Innovators aren't
always the winners, as many British
inventors know to their cost. Recent weeks
have witnessed digital stirrings in Europe
(including a rise in internet start-up firms
and transcontinental mergers). But there is
a lot to catch up on to avoid being lapped
by the onward gallop of the US.
