I think you have to be wrong about Y8B being unlikely, because of the
momentum built into the human age distribution. To fail to reach Y8B
would require either a catastrophic die-off or an essentially
instantaneous reduction in average birth rates far below 2.0 per couple
for the generation presently at reproductive age or below. The
alternative to not reaching Y8B or Y10B or whatever, is of course a
catastrophic reduction in human living standards.
Back to the subject of how ZPG got to where it is, I am afraid I thnnk it
is a symptom of a larger problem - that human-run institutions dependent
in any significant fashion on the global economy for their continued
well-being must fairly quickly reflect the global economy or, as a very
talented writer friend who has been shut out of professional writing by it
says, "the marketocracy."
On Wed, 9 Jun 1999, Gaia Foundation wrote:
> Nicholas wrote
>
> --- "Nicholas C. Arguimbau" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > Y8B is now inevitable. Will Y10B and Y12B also be
> > "milestones"? ZPG's
> > slide into complacency has been scary, and also difficult
> > to understand.
> > What are the forces that caused this? Are
> > sexually-transmitted viruses
> > the "last best hope" for Gaia? A sad day if they are.
>
> Given that the Ecological Footprint of 5.9B is equal to 1.3
> planets, and that 40% of the Net Primary Production of
> planetary photosynthesis is used for human purpose, and
> that our planetary impacts seem to be doubling every 25
> years (i.e. a 3% planetary GDP rate), and given the Nett
> Unrecoverable Reserves that Jay Hansen speaks of, it makes
> a Y8B very unlikely. We may touch it and go under...
>
> For the Earth
>
> John
> ===
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
> MEMBER OF "The age of nations is past.
> THE__ The task before us,
> / \ /\ | /\ if we would not perish,
> | . /__\ | /__\ is to shake off our ancient prejudices
> \_/| / \ |/ \ and build the Earth"
> FOUNDATION Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
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>
