World population growth may be slowing, but
don't cheer yet.
Slower explosion
By Peter Brimelow
IS THE POPULATION EXPLOSION
ENDING? The United Nations
reduced its world population
projections recently. This
cheered conservative and
religious groups as evidence that
the population explosion would go away without
government promotion of birth control, abortion,
etc. (see chart).
In fact, many demographers expected that
population would stabilize as technological and
social limits were reached. And charted on a ratio
scale, where a steady growth rate appears as an
upward-sloping straight line, human population
history loses much of that familiar terrifying
exponential upswing (upper line, left scale).
But don't cheer yet:
� Even on a ratio scale, the recent explosion is
historically exceptional�"consistent with the
conventional understanding," says demographer
Michael S. Teitelbaum, coauthor, with Jay
Winter, of A Question of Numbers: High
Migration, Low Fertility, and the Politics of
National Identity (Hill & Wang, 1998, $26.00.)
And even with the slowing, the U.N. projects that
world population could reach 8.9 billion by 2050,
up from about 6 billion today, and almost 11
billion by 2150.
� Even if overall population is stabilizing,
individual countries will grow partly because
people redistribute themselves. Thus the U.S.
population is authoritatively expected to expand
by about half, to some 394 million in 2050,
basically because of immigrants and their
descendants (see inset chart).
� This population explosion is actually the third in
human history. The first began with the
development of farming about 5000 B.C. It
ended around A.D. 200 as the classical societies
of Rome and China matured. The second began
in A.D. 600-700, accelerating through the high
medieval period in Europe. It ended around A.D.
1200-1300.
Both previous population explosions did duly
fizzle upon reaching the limits of then-available
technology. Indeed, they overshot it. Disturbing
thought: Both ended in catastrophe�invasions
(Germans, Mongols), disease (the Black Death).
Could that happen again? Are you a congenital
optimist? Or a congenital pessimist?
Put it this way: The good news is that, on present
trends, there will be a lot more readers of
FORBES here in 2050. The bad news: They might
have to read it standing up.
Research: Edwin S. Rubenstein, research director,
Hudson Institute, Indianapolis.
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
A chart accompanying this article can be found at the following address.
http://www.forbes.com:80/forbes/99/0125/6302058chart1.htm
