I think you folks might be interested in these comments as well... M ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 14:30:46 -0300 (ADT) From: Michael Gurstein <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: ICT: Job Creator or Destroyer I think that it is important in this discussion to always keep in mind both the "macro" and the "micro" levels of analysis. Discussion on the ICT & Jobs issue has in recent months appeared to polarize between the "analysts" who are looking at "macro" level jobs research and industry level accounts of labour shortages (who are optimistic) and those at the "micro" levels who are bringing forward a continuous stream of anecdotal "evidence" concerning the highly differential impact that the hi-tech boom is having regionally and by age and education categories (who are nothing if not pessimistic). Macro-level accounts, while for the most part focussing on developed economies and even only on selective regions within those developed economies have an overall lulling effect on those working with development in the Third World and in LRLE's (lagging regions in leading economies). This takes the form--"if we can only get the factors worked out right (R & D, training/education, tax regimes and so on) we too can be a Silicon Valley and (by extension) emulate the evidently booming US economy". This type of approach also has an output in distorted policy making both nationally and by development agencies in that there is an assumption that simply reproducing those factors which sustain an output state--(eg. Silicon Valley) somehow (and magically) when transposed to a developing country or region will reproduce that output state--eg. hi tech induced prosperity. The fallacy with this is that the economic/social/institutional preconditions for creating and maintaining those "factors" also need to be locally created or alternatively those factors need to be established in such a way as to be completely structurally isolated from the surrounding economic/social/institutional conditions (a bubble development), or else the exercise won't work. Canada as a "whole" is moving foward quite effectively, evidently propelled largely by the hi tech sector while Cape Breton continues its long downward spiral. Bangalore gets software jobs but what about Nepal. How far outside Cyberjaya will the hi-tech bubble penetrate. Equally, macro planning (and expectations) may mask or even exacerbate local conditions or "transitional circumstances" which are impossible for communities or individuals to overcome. In Canada there is a very considerable emphasis on youth unemployment (double the national average) and efforts are being made to "transition" youth into technology intensive employment through various types of grant programs. Where I live in Cape Breton, most of the eligible young people have left and my Centre recently had the bizarre situation where we had to deny retraining opportunities to 45 year old unemployed steelworkers while frantically searching for employed young people we could persuade to work on our project (developing an Occupational Health and Safety web-site for the steel plant!!!) in order for us to get the promised federal funding. Macro level analysis and planning suggests the need for connectivity, for infrastructure, for tax incentives for private entrepreneurs. Micro level analysis demonstrates how hard it will be for many if not most of those currently outside the ICT intensive economy (and in this I would include most from the developing world) to find some role within it, especially in the absence of significant public intervention in the form of training and education, enterprise incubation, small scale financing, and directed procurement and enterprise support. Mike Gurstein Michael Gurstein, Ph.D. ECBC/NSERC/SSHRC Associate Chair in the Management of Technological Change Director: Centre for Community and Enterprise Networking (C\CEN) University College of Cape Breton, POBox 5300, Sydney, NS, CANADA B1P 6L2 Tel. 902-563-1369 (o) 902-562-1055 (h) 902-563-1336 (fax) [EMAIL PROTECTED] Http://ccen.uccb.ns.ca ICQ: 7388855
