WEATHER DISASTERS
Economic forecast: no money for that rainy day
Sept. 21, 1998
Sydney Morning Herald
By JOHN VIDAL in London
The weather is blamed for wrecking the lives of up to 300
million flood-affected people in Asia and the Indian subcontinent
in the past two months, but free market economics which have
greatly increased people's vulnerability to extreme weather may
also be responsible.
Disaster experts, development agencies, academics and leading
climatologists are beginning to support an emerging theory that the
globalisation of economies may be largely responsible for much of
the misery now stalking the planet.
An area the size of Europe has been inundated in Asia and the
Indian subcontinent, with more than 15 poor countries trying to
alleviate wide-scale destitution and battling water-related health
epidemics. Many other countries are still recovering from droughts,
forest fires and other extreme weather events.
But climatologists argue that weather is only partly to blame.
"There is a long-term underlying trend of climate change but no
great increase in extreme weather or any greatly increased
severity," says Mr Mick Kelly, of the University of East Anglia.
"There is a greatly increasing vulnerability of people
following over-exploitation of resources, the clearing of forests
and changing of river courses."
The floods in China and India have been directly blamed on
massive deforestation in the uplands, and giant dams and river
control. The Chinese are now planning to replant the hillsides.
Economic trends are critical to understanding natural disasters,
says Mr Kelly. Austerity measures, IMF and World Bank structural
adjustment programs and the opening of markets were heightening
inequalities, encouraging countries to sell off resources.
Displacement of people because of development projects and
population pressures has also contributed, he says.
"Five years ago 70 per cent of world disasters were related
to refugees, and less than 5 per cent were natural. Almost a third
of all disasters are now weather- related," says Mr Peter Walker,
of the International Red Cross in Geneva, which is appealing for
funds to cope with weather- related emergencies in more than 25
countries.
"Governments are increasingly unable to support public works,
like embankments and flood control," he says. "Private capital has
flooded into many poor countries, but it is after the quick buck.
It is not interested in public works, social welfare or development
projects which can increase people's capacity to cope in crises."
Many flood control systems are now old and the cost of
rebuilding or constructing embankments is mounting. At the same
time, governments are being told to invest more in exports and
services, and there is less money available for protection.
"Economic constraints are preventing authorities investing in
traditional protection services," says Mr Walker.
"They are not being encouraged to think long-term but are
moving away from being protectors of citizens. Many traditional
areas of government concern are being left to slide."
-The Guardian
