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Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1998 12:38:39 -0400 (EDT)
From: Robert Pollard <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: UN Community <>
Subject: [partners] fwd: Year 2000 Crisis Q&A Roundtable, 16 September
*** apologies for duplicate postings ***
From: Bob Bogen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Worldwide Year 2000 Computer Date Crisis: Question & Answer
Roundtable
Worldwide Year 2000 Computer Date Crisis
For United Nations & Civil Society Organizations Action
Question & Answer Roundtable
Wednesday, 16 September, 1998 at 7 PM
One UN Plaza, [1st Avenue north of 44th Street]
Executive Dining Room, Third Floor
Sponsored by the
Communications Coordination Committee for the United Nations
Welcome by Dr. Wally N'Dow
Secretary General, Habitat II
Special Advisor to the Administrator of UNDP
Opening Remarks by Ambassador Ahmad Kamal
Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations
Chairman of the United Nations Working Group on Informatics
==============================================================
The potential disruption of local and global functions due to
Year 2000 [Y2K] computer date problems demands the most urgent
and highest priority in business, industry and government at all
levels as well as action by Civil Society and the United Nations.
Many computers and embedded microprocessors in equipment around
the world are expected to malfunction or crash as they tick over
from midnight on the 31st of December, 1999 to January 1st, 2000
due to programming which did not provide for use in the next
century.
Scope of the Problem: Activities which are vulnerable to
widespread or even global Y2K disruption include financial
transactions, infrastructure services including electricity,
heating, transportation, communications, water as well as food
production and distribution, health care, government safety net
payments, emergency services and all major economic activity.
Scale of the Problem: History offers no example of a parallel
threat on a global, national or even local scale. To "wait and
see" invites disaster. Only the long term threats of global
warming, oxygen loss, exhaustion of other basic resources in the
oceans and continents as well as the eventual possibility of an
earth-asteroid collision demand worldwide action on a similar
scale. And none of those problems present us with the Y2K date-
positive threat, just months away.
Chain Reaction Disruptions Likely: Experts agree that the current
widespread use of computers for our complex communications and
control networks can result in a cascading, avalanche of
breakdowns. This can occur even to those systems which have been
repaired to eliminate any internal Y2K errors. They, too, can be
shut down by electronic contact with outside computers which have
not been completely converted to Year 2000 compliance.
Massive Prevention Effort Essential: Although there has been an
acceleration in media reporting on this issue, including tabloid
panic headlines, action around the world has been gravely
inadequate, even in the largest industrial nations. Only in some
large financial institutions and isolated governmental agencies
has adequate funding and staff been put in place. It is essential
that Civil Society leaders make immediate efforts to gain a basic
understanding of this issue. We can act to generate, as well as
vigorously support, emergency action by public and private
organizations in their nations and communities.
Emergency Preparations Start Now: More prevention, so-called
"remediation" efforts are essential if society is to function at
an acceptable level. However, it is now clear that it is too late
to avoid all disruptions. Civil Society leaders must not only
take responsibility to generate and support massive remediation
efforts but must also work on preparations, so-called
"contingency planning" for many of the various disruptions which
may occur. Both private disaster and relief organizations as well
as all public service agencies must be engaged in this effort.
Preparations at neighborhood and family level will also be
necessary.
Denial, Secrecy, and Panic: Petersen, Wheatly, and Kellner-Rogers
write " Even where there is some recognition of the potential
disruptions or chaos that Y2K might create, there's a powerful
dynamic of secrecy preventing us from engaging in these
conversations. Leaders don't want to panic their citizens.
Employees don't want to panic their bosses. Corporations don't
want to panic investors. Lawyers don't want their clients to
confess to anything."* Douglass Carmichael writes, "Those who
want to hush the problem are having three effects. First they are
preventing a more rigorous investigation of the extent of the
problem. Second, they are slowing down the awareness of the
urgency of solutions. Third, they are making almost certain a
higher degree of ultimate panic, in anger, under conditions of
shock."*
Positive Potential of Crisis: Ralph Szygenda, General Motors'
Chief Information Officer says Y2K is the cruelest trick ever
played on us by Technology, but that it also represents a great
opportunity for change.* Petersen et al add, "What we know about
people in crisis is: 1) Shared purpose and meaning brings people
together. 2) People display unparalleled levels of creativity and
resourcefulness, 3) People want to help others, individual
agendas fade immediately, 4) People learn instantly and respond
at lightning speed, 5) The more information people get, the
smarter their responses, 6) Leadership behaviors (not roles)
appear everywhere, as needed, and 7) People experiment constantly
to find what works."*
Role of the United Nations With Civil Society Stimulation: It
would also be extraordinarily significant if we can help build a
United Nations role as the world clearinghouse and support agency
to meet this crisis. A worldwide strategic mobilization for Y2K
contingency priorities similar to the effort required by World
War II must be developed in the weeks ahead.
Education of Public and Leaders Overdue: Civil Society leaders
are encouraged to review the speech on Global Implications of Y2K
by Ambassador Ahmad Kamal of Pakistan, Chairman of the UN Working
Group on Informatics. For additional information on this problem,
remediation and contingency planning, various internet sites are
the most convenient and comprehensive source. Several useful
sites with links to additional sites are as follows:
War & Peace Foundation (includes quotes given above)*
http://www.interport.net/~warpeace/y2k.html
Year 2000 Transition - United Nations web site
http://www.un.org/members/yr2000
Global Economic Implications of Y2K Problem - Ambassador Kamal
http://www.undp.org/missions/pakistan/16980320.htm
The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?
http://www.wfs.org/wfs/year2k.htm
International Year 2000 Links
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/g7yr2000.htm
Selected Papers on the Year 2000 Problem
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2kconf/papers.htm
Global Millennial Foundation
http://www.globalmf.org
Everything 2000 - Resources for Year 2000 & the New Millennium
http://www.everything2000.com
Public Technology, Inc. - Year 2000 & Local Governments
http://www.pti.org
"Millennium Tragedy in Urbanville" by Martyn Emery
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2kconf/paper14.htm
Year 2000 Problem and the Danger of Accidental Nuclear War
http://www.fas.org/2000/y2k/analysis.htm
Information Portal on the Year 2000 Problem
http://www.y2k.com
Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/search_.cfm
Ed Yourdon's Web site - Author of "Time Bomb 2000"
http://www.yourdon.com
Center for Cyber Economics - Edward Yardeni
http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html
Year 2000 Information Center - Peter de Jager
http://www.year2000.com
Cassandra Project - Grassroots preparations for Y2K
http://www.millennia-bcs.com
Washington DC Y2K User Group
http://www.wdcy2k.org
U.S. Federal Government Gateway for Year 2000 Information
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2khome.htm
U.S. Government Accounting Office - Year 2000 Computing Crisis
http://www.gao.gov/y2kr.htm
====================================
For additional information, contact:
Bob Bogen at 212.972.3869 or 212.286.5700, Fax 212.297.0438
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
