---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 1998 14:28:13 -0400 (EDT)
From: Friedemann Greulich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [passem] A predictable calamity - what can we do?
Dear global citizens,
The recent flooding of large areas in China, India, other Asian
countries and now even in Africa and Mexico (1) fills me -
besides the deep sorrow about the human and environmental
tragedy - with fundamental concerns about the medium and
long term effects. Unprecedented huge agricultural areas
bearing an important harvest are spoiled while the concerned
peoples are struggling to save the big cities and often
thousands of naked lives. The coming winter at the northern
hemisphere will see at least China and India putting all their
grown economic power in the world food market to feed their
hungry billions of people. They may have to compete with relief
organizations trying to help the flood victims of less powerful
nations. However, the world stocks of several important food
resources are reported to be on a historical low.
All this seems to be sure to lead to a dramatic increase in food
prices in the near future, further destabilizing the political, social
and financial situation in Asia as well as on a global scale. A
more thorough analysis on this interrelationships you can find
in a documentation published last year by the World Watch
Institute (2). In the end of this mail I will include some quotes
from this paper.
Many questions come to my mind in this context:
- How can we try to predict the actual loss of harvest and the gap
of food supply?
- Could anybody predict the possible economic, financial, and
political consequences?
- How could we prepare an answer to this events on all this levels
from practical to political - short to long term?
In case of an actual food catastrophe (I am not sure about the
El Nino harvests in other parts of the world) what reactions can
be expected from the FAO, the UN, the Worldbank, the system
of global corporations? I better stop before thinking about anti-
western movements (recently again incited by ignorant use of
power), then possibly riding on a wave of desperate rioting
people - and the military implications.
Moreover, I think about consequences for the future
development of global agriculture policies. Clearly, just a further
increase of the money for the modern industrial style agriculture
would be a foreseeable but dangerously shortsighted reaction.
The claiming of new arable land, the yield increase per acre by
plant breeding, irrigation, use of artificial fertilizers and
pesticides (as well as the global fish catch) - all seems to be
pushed already far beyond healthy limits. The industrial style
agriculture together with the global deforestation are major
causes for the increased flooding, increased soil erosion, and
reduced aquifer recharge. The massive and ever increasing
input of chemicals and fossil energy created in many aspects
an highly unstable and non-sustainable system (besides the
medium term increase in productivity).
Much better agriculture concepts can be found already, among
grass-roots movements as well as non-mainstream scientists
(3).
In short, I would appeal for reallocation of financial resources
supporting a more diverse agricultural structure including
already existing highly potential organic and natural farming
methods and their further improvement with related research
and development.
However, all efforts in this area will be futile as long as the
social, economical, and educational situation of the farming
people is not improved substantially. We should try to find
smooth regulatory mechanisms for just compensation and
exchange by and with the satiated urban people. More social
and structural adjustment will be necessary to stop the
population growth in a human and intelligent way.
Unfortunately, the opposing forces among the industrial world
and their powerful connections are to include in the calculation
as well. ... -
I would like to know:
- Is there already something like a food and agriculture forum in
the MPAN movement (4) gathering people competent on this
subject?
- Would there other INES-members or member organizations (5)
be interested in a new project centered around food and
agriculture problems? ( I think there should be some
accumulated competence from the INES-DEV study groups?) (6)
Every kind of comment on this thoughts is welcome. I will
inform the recipients of this message in a suitable way about
the results.
Sincerely
Friedemann Greulich
(regional INES contact Japan)
(1) see also CNN:
http://cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9809/10/floods.01/index.html
(2) The Agricultural Link: How Environmental Deterioration
Could Disrupt Economic Progress:
http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/paper/136.html
(3) for instance at the Union of Concerned Scientists:
http://www.ucsusa.org/agriculture/index.html
(4) The People's Millennium Assembly Network:
http://www.netreaction.com/mpan/
(5) INES (International Network of Engineers and Scientists for
Global Responsibility)
http://www.mindspring.com/~us016262/ines.html
(6) INES-DEV - a project confronting unequal development:
http://www-bshm.upmf-grenoble.fr/INESDEV/
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Here I include an excerpt from
"The Agricultural Link: How Environmental Deterioration Could
Disrupt Economic Progress"
( http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/paper/136.html ).
"The deterioration of the earth's ecosystem is slowing growth
in world food production during the nineties and ushering in an
era of scarcity. After a half century of falling grain prices, the 39
percent rise in the world price of wheat over the last three years
may signal a new era of rising grain prices.
For the world's affluent, who spend a small share of their
income for food, even a doubling of world grain prices would
not have a major immediate effect. But for the 1.3 billion in the
world who live on a dollar a day or less, such a rise could be
life-threatening. Heads of households unable to buy enough
food for their families would hold their governments
responsible and would likely take to the streets.
The resulting political instability in Third World cities could
affect the earnings of multinational corporations, the
performance of stock markets, the earnings of pension funds,
and the stability of the international monetary system. In short,
it could disrupt economic progress.
During the nineties, food security has deteriorated. Even
though all the U.S. cropland idled under commodity programs
has been returned to production, world grain carryover stocks
have dropped to the lowest level on record. If the world is
unable to rebuild depleted stocks, the next poor harvest could
bring a dramatic rise in grain prices, one that could impoverish
more people than any event in history.
While scientists have known for some time that the global
economy could not continue to expand indefinitely if the
ecosystem on which it depends continued to deteriorate, it was
not clear how these conflicting trends would be reconciled. It
now seems likely that agriculture will be the link that brings
divergent economic and environmental trends together.
All the global trends of environmental degradation affect the
food prospect, including deforestation, the buildup in
greenhouse gases, soil erosion, aquifer depletion, overfishing,
air pollution, and the loss of plant and animal species.
Deforestation leads to increased rainfall runoff, reduced aquifer
recharge, and increased soil erosion. Rising atmospheric levels
of CO2 may be responsible for the crop-withering heat waves
that have reduced the U.S. grain harvest in three of the last nine
years. Soil erosion is reducing the inherent fertility of perhaps
30 percent of the world's cropland. Aquifer depletion is
reducing the irrigated area in many countries. With oceanic
fisheries now being pushed to their limits, all future growth in
food output will have to come from land-based sources.
... "
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Dr. Friedemann Greulich, Hokkaido Univ., Fac. of Agriculture
Japan, 060-0809 Sapporo, Kita-ku, Kita 9 Nishi 9
Tel.: (+81-11) 706-3349, Fax: ...-2505, priv. Tel./Fax: 614 3099
e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
homepage: http://www.agr.hokudai.ac.jp/bioorg/friede/friede.htm
private: http://www.voicenet.co.jp/~friede/fg.htm
