From: Terry Cottam <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: fw: Avoiding Panic: The Real Challenge of Y2K This warning from Robert Theobald seems timely with yesterday's front-page Globe and Mail article, "Army fears civil chaos from millennium bug." You can find it at: http://www.globeandmail.com/docs/news/19981027/GlobeFront/UTWOON.html An excerpt: "Rules for the use of force are being drafted should soldiers have to make arrests or back up police dealing with riots and looting.... Navy captains have been told their ships may have to be docked to serve as garrisons, power plants, field hospitals and soup kitchens." Theobald warns about a vacuum of vision by authorities: "Communities should start activities which will make them more resilient and enable them to cope with breakdowns if they do occur. This requires at least three levels of activity...." ----- Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 15:10:27 -0800 From: Bob Stilger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] A new piece by Robert Theobald ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Avoiding Panic: The Real Challenge of Y2K Robert Theobald. 14 Months and Counting until the decision to state dates in computers with two figures instead of four starts to bite. Or eight months if one recognizes that glitches will start appearing at the beginning of the 2000 fiscal year. And some problems may emerge as early as January 1,999. The amount of technical work which can be completed for large systems is already largely determined: there is not enough time to start work at this point and hope to have it completed. Smaller systems still have time to be changed although the availability of competent computer programmers is a major constraint and many organizations have yet to recognize how much they are at risk. Now the emphasis needs to move. We must prepare people so they can make intelligent decisions about how to deal with the implications of possible breakdowns. The essential problem emerges from the fact that we do not know now, and will not know until the various deadlines come and go, how serious the dangers may be. This is an unparallelled situation. An event is certain to take place but nobody can say for certain how much damage it can cause. Into this enormous vacuum, a growing number of people are pouring advice. Some of it is valuable: all too much of it threatens to create panic. For example, it may well make sense for everybody to have some aditional food stocked in case there are breakdowns in supplies. If people limit their demands on the system to two weeks more than they usually have in their houses, the implications are manageable. If, on the other hand, large numbers of people decide that they want to have a year's food supply then there is no way that the food delivery chain can cope. Similarly, there are scaremonger stories about the collapse of the banking system despite the fact that enormous effort is being made in most rich countries to deal with the bug. A decision by people that they want to have twice or three times as much money in their pockets at the turn of the millennium, let alone withdraw their deposits from the bank, could cause chaos. Decisions by the banks to force compliance on those to whom they have made loans could still further worsen the difficulties. What then should leaders be doing at every level from the local to the national to the global? They should be providing people with the best knowledge that is available about the likely impacts. This work needs to start immediately. The later this work is left, the more certain it is that people will act to deal with their suddenly aroused fears in a way which will certainly stress socioeonomic systems and may risk their breakdown. Communities should start activities which will make them more resilient and enable them to cope with breakdowns if they do occur. This requires at least three levels of activity. First, every support should be given to those who may be vulnerable to the impact of Y2K to minimize technical glitches. Second, community leaders should be organized to deal with such breakdowns as do occur recognizing that they will not be able to draw help from other communities as is normally the case with disasters. Third, local neighborhoods and sub-neighborhoods should be ready to deal with whatever problems do occur. They should take an inventory of who has gas and electricity and coal fires. They should know who is old and frail and young and vulnerable. They should be as prepared as possible to deal with their own needs without having to go to city hall. All of this work also needs to be put in a broader context. Y2K is a wake-up call for issues which have been developing over the last half century. There has been an emerging need for profound change in economic, technological, ecological, social, moral and spiritual directions for the last fifty years. Y2k forces us to confront these challenges in an incredibly short time-frame. It is not a bump in the road: it is a reminder that we must move our behaviors and commitments in radically new directions if we are to provide a high quality of life for our children and grandchildren. Y2K also needs to be placed in an immediate context. There is now agreement among many economic and financial analysts that the world faces a greater risk of economic recession, or even slump, than has been the case for many decades. When the impact of potential technological breakdowns is factored into the equation, the dangers to public safety and order are certainly higher than has yet been realized. We therefore face a profound set of changes which must be dealt with in conditions of radically increased uncertainty and turbulence. Leaders around the world will need to work with each other at all levels from the local to the global. Failure to break new ground in the ways we collaborate could threaten the stability of the world through the unpredictability of the linkages between one computer system and others. But the real message is that the Y2K bug provides us with an extraordinary opportunity. It is a time when we can ask ourselves the profound questions which have been buried by our wealth and our technology. It is a time for us to ask what we really value and how we can preserve the ecological systems on which all life depends. It is a wonderful time to be alive. Blessings and Peace, Robert East 202 Rockwood Blvd, #1, Spokane, Wa 99202, USA 509-835-3569 e-mail:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.transform.org/transform/tlc/index.html Caught between two world: one dead, one waiting to be born." With apologies to William Blake. -- For MAI-not (un)subscription information, posting guidelines and links to other MAI sites please see http://mai.flora.org/
