---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 10:51:17 -0600 From: "Emilie F. Nichols" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: World Bank Brief on Hunger and Sen (http://www.worldbank.org/html/dec/publications/briefs/db28.html) Development Brief Number 28 January 1994 Hunger is political economy Food output per head is important, but so is democracy---which can result in wider availability of food Trends in food supply and population growth since Malthus have not given much comfort regarding his harsh criticism. Population has risen sharply since his time, yet the supply of food per head has grown rather than fallen by large magnitudes. Average longevity has increased to levels that only a few could enjoy in the past, and birthrates have come down with the spread of education (especially female education) and economic development. Malthus thought that populations would grow inexorably with prosperity and had to be kept down by misery. Yet population growth rates are low in countries with robust economic and educational development and remain high mainly in regions of misery and underdevelop- ment (such as Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia). There are, of course, many problems still connected with population growth, but they do not arise from issues stressed by Malthus. Why does hunger persist? According to Amartya Sen of Harvard University, hunger is best seen in terms of the failure of people to establish command over an adequate amount of food and other necessities (known as the entitlement theory).[1] A person may have few means of commanding food if he or she has no job, no other sources of income, and no social security. The hunger that will result can coexist with a plentiful supply of food in the economy and the markets. Famines have, in fact, occurred in situations of high food availability---sometimes even peak food availability. Famine prevention and science Effective famine prevention depends on three essential requirements. First is understanding the real causes of famine, which requires recognition that famines arise within particular sections of the population, as with a sector of the work force that suffers from unemployment, falling real wages, and so on. The Malthusian focus on food supply per head can be misleading---it can generate a false sense of security based on the belief that so long as food output per head is high enough, no threat of hunger exists. While we have tended to debate the merits and flaws of Malthusian pessimism, what may be called Malthusian optimism has killed millions: policymakers sticking to a false theory of famines have seen no need to take preventive action when food output per head is high and there is plenty of food in the market, while large sections of the population have been forced to starve because of their failure to command a part of the food that is there. The entitlement theory does not deny the importance of food output---many people command food by growing it themselves, and the price at which others can buy food is favorably affected by a larger food output. Scientific advances and changes in public policy to promote food production, especially in regions where it has stagnated or declined (such as Sub-Saharan Africa), can be an extremely significant tool for protecting the entitlements of potential famine victims. Also, it is terribly important for famine relief to have some food available in public hands for distribution among victims or for release in the market to break spirals of food price rise. One of the practical problems relief organizations face today is the decline in food available for international relief---a result of programmed cutbacks in food production in Europe and America. The production of food and its availability in crucial areas are indeed important for any entitlement-based analysis of famines. Yet concentrating only on food output and availability is not enough. Sensible famine prevention policies depend on a fuller economic understanding of the process of commanding food. Economics of famine prevention In preventing famines, the economic policies needed to recreate the lost entitlements are easy to identify, according to Sen. While direct food distribution has tended to be favored in some regions (often with good justification), public jobs programs could be used more widely to generate income and security. Offering paid jobs to destitutes in an area threatened by famine can economically empower the potential famine victims to command food. Their wages enable them to buy food in the market and to resume growing their own food. Job creation can be combined with increased food supply from elsewhere, but a more equal sharing of the available food itself---as a result of the newly regenerated purchasing power of the potential victims---tends to prevent famines. Such policies have been attempted with great success in many countries, including India. This kind of strategy involves a combination of state intervention and market forces. It arises out of an informed analysis of what causes famines and how these causes can be overcome by effective public programs. Such programs need not be too expensive even for very poor countries. The proportion of people threatened by famines rarely exceeds 5% of the total population of a country, and their share of the national pie would typically be no more than 2% or 3% (because they are normally quite poor, even before the threatened famine). To restore their lost income and to offer them their normal share of the national food supply does not, therefore, require inordinate economic resources, even for a very poor country. This is, of course, not an argument for other, richer countries to refrain from helping. But it is certainly an argument for the poor countries threatened by famines not to wait helplessly for aid from abroad. Politics of famine prevention In addition to the economic aspects of famine prevention, there is a political aspect. A government may be capable of undertaking an effective famine prevention policy and yet not act. Thus, another factor is the political influences that make famine prevention imperative. Sen argues that democracy and a free press are great forces in that direction, since a government must respond quickly and convincingly if it has to face reelection, if it cannot censor out the terrible facts of starvation, disease, and death that go with famines, and if it has to face strong criticism from opposition parties and newspapers. It is not surprising that no famine has ever occurred in a democratic country with a relatively free press. This applies not only to the richer countries, but also to poor ones that have a democratic state and a largely uncensored press. The contrast between India's avoidance of famines since independence in 1947 (the last famine there, which killed between 2 and 3 million people, was in 1943) and famines in Sudan, Ethiopia, and other nondemocratic countries since the 1940s is illustrative. Similarly, democratic Botswana and Zimbabwe have had critical food problems due to droughts in the early 1980s but have nevertheless avoided famine through quick public action.
