---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 05:04:32 -0800 (PST)
From: MichaelP <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "unlikely.suspects": ;
Subject: runaway greenhouse effect
World's biggest super-computer predicts runaway greenhouse effect that
will bring drought, deserts and disease in its wake
By Paul Brown
Guardian (london) Tuesday November 3, 1998
Large swathes of the planet will be plunged into misery by climate
change in the next 50 years, with many millions ravaged by hunger,
water shortages and flooding, according to evidence published
yesterday.
Findings from Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Change presented to
170 countries in Buenos Aires show that parts of the Amazon rain
forest will turn into desert by 2050, threatening the world with an
unstoppable greenhouse effect.
The startling findings are the result of billions of calculations made
by the world's biggest super-computer, installed at the Hadley Centre
in Berkshire. The latest figures show the earth is heating up fast,
with 1998 already the hottest year since reliable records began 140
years ago.
Among the findings are:
* Land temperatures will go up 6C by the end of the next century.
* The number of people on the coast subject to flooding each year
will rise from 5 million now to 100 million by 2050 and 200
million by 2080.
* Another 30 million people will be hungry in 50 years because it
will be too dry to grow crops in large parts of Africa.
* An extra 170 million people will live in countries with extreme
water shortages.
* Malaria, one of the world's most dread diseases, will threaten
much larger areas of the world - including Europe - by 2050.
The new predictions include far better representations of ocean
currents, which drive the world's climate. The Gulf Stream, which is
important for warming Britain in the winter, will be 20 per cent less
strong in the future but Europe will still warm considerably.
Western Europe, including Scotland, will gain the ability to grow
extra grain, but the storms of the past few weeks will be typical of
the more extreme weather conditions the country can expect.
The impact on food supply will be particularly bad for Africa and the
United States. The whole of central and southern Africa will have
reduced ability to grow staple crops, but in world political terms the
adverse affects on the US prairies is likely to prove very important.
Droughts and extra heat leading to evaporation means that wheat and
maize yields will drop up to 10 per cent. Since the vast surplus of
the US wheat belt is important to the country's wealth and its hold on
world food supplies, this prediction will be bad news for the White
House.
The US stands accused of holding up talks designed to reduce the
world's output of carbon dioxide, so it is ironic that on the first
day of the two-week meeting in Argentina the latest models show that
the US will be among the countries most severely affected. Canada, on
the other hand, will see wheat production increase by 2.5 per cent.
The Canadian forests will extend northwards into what is now tundra.
Perhaps the most startling finding is the prospect of a runaway
greenhouse effect after 2050. It has been thought that the speed of
global warming would be moderated by the extra growth in plants and
trees made possible because of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
This carbon dioxide fertiliser effect stimulates plants to grow
faster.
The latest information shows that this benefit will be lost in 2050
because of lack of rainfall in key areas. Worst affected will be
northern Brazil, where the Amazon rain forest will turn into desert,
and the eastern United States. Parts of southern Europe will become
virtual deserts at the same time.
Many tropical grasslands will also be transformed into deserts,
leading to widespread extinction of wildlife.
The rise in global sea level will be 21cm (3.2in) by 2050. The coasts
of the southern Mediterranean, Egypt, west and east Africa, south and
south-east Asia are most vulnerable. The islands of the Caribbean,
Indian and Pacific Oceans, some only a few feet above sea level, are
at risk of being overwhelmed during storms.
Increased warmth leads to a dramatic rise in the number of malaria
cases where the disease is already endemic. It is already spreading
north - Italy had an outbreak last year - and is expected to reach the
Baltic by 2050. Although parts of Britain are already warm enough for
the mosquitoes that carry the lesser Vivax malaria, no infection has
so far reached these shores. The more dangerous P. falciparum form
needs warmer temperatures but conditions will be right for it within
50 years over large parts of Europe.
The problem for doctors is that in 60 per cent of the world where
malaria is currently unknown populations have little or no immunity to
the disease and an epidemic could cause high death rates in adults and
children.
Michael Meacher, the environment minister who is going to Argentina,
said: "These are sobering findings. Millions of people will have life
made miserable by climate change, with increased risk of hunger, water
shortages and extreme events like flooding. Combating climate change
is the greatest challenge of human history."
** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material
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