On Sat, 22 Sep 2012 07:59:27 PM Michael T. Pope wrote:
> If it stands up there there will be greater cause for optimism.

OK, we have greater cause for optimism.  Here are the results for the last two 
overnight runs.  What is being measured is mostly AI mission completions, with 
the addition of colony number and average colony size.  I do 10 runs with 7 
active AIs playing to 1700 and average the results, using a small random map 
with Very Hard settings (small-VH) and a Caribbean map with normal settings 
(debug-N), using the freecol ruleset in both cases.  The names in parentheses 
are the applied patch sets, with "st" being the starvation patch.  iter2 was 
committed yesterday so it is present in the latter runs, animate is a logging 
boost to try to catch a Heisenbug in animation and headless is the patch to 
make headless mode work, both of which should be irrelevant to production.

20120922-small-7-VH x 10 (animate,headless,iter2)
Builds         24.800 ~   3.250         Cashins         0.000 ~   0.000
Colony#        22.300 ~   3.407         ColonySize      3.429 ~   0.375
Defences      230.200 ~   9.600         Missions        1.200 ~   0.748
Native Demands 26.400 ~  11.473         Native Gifts  493.200 ~  94.330
Pioneerings    22.300 ~   4.406         Piracies       19.300 ~   8.439
Scoutings      66.900 ~  18.807         Seek+Destroys 201.800 ~  45.299
Transports    113.400 ~  17.200         Wishes         33.700 ~   3.874

20120922-debug-N x 10 (animate,headless,iter2)
Builds         23.500 ~   2.377         Cashins         0.000 ~   0.000
Colony#        22.400 ~   1.855         ColonySize      3.330 ~   0.274
Defences      139.400 ~  22.155         Missions        2.400 ~   0.490
Native Demands  8.000 ~   2.828         Native Gifts  182.100 ~  49.780
Pioneerings    26.400 ~   5.044         Piracies       87.800 ~  13.898
Scoutings      22.300 ~   6.694         Seek+Destroys 104.300 ~  22.334
Transports    106.500 ~  20.319         Wishes         27.100 ~   5.262

20120922-small-7-VH x 10 (animate,headless,st)
Builds         29.200 ~  10.303         Cashins         0.000 ~   0.000
Colony#        24.600 ~   6.931         ColonySize      3.267 ~   0.310
Defences      238.600 ~  18.938         Missions        1.500 ~   1.118
Native Demands 23.800 ~  10.778         Native Gifts  446.400 ~  74.247
Pioneerings    26.300 ~   3.035         Piracies       11.300 ~  10.383
Scoutings      74.700 ~  16.565         Seek+Destroys 217.900 ~  46.664
Transports     98.800 ~  17.411         Wishes         34.800 ~   9.097

20120923-debug-N x 10 (animate,headless,st)
Builds         23.200 ~   3.280         Cashins         0.000 ~   0.000
Colony#        22.100 ~   3.448         ColonySize      3.889 ~   0.432
Defences      132.600 ~  22.668         Missions        2.700 ~   0.900
Native Demands  8.300 ~   3.716         Native Gifts  177.300 ~  54.798
Pioneerings    26.100 ~   4.784         Piracies       94.800 ~  22.063
Scoutings      23.300 ~   5.967         Seek+Destroys 106.800 ~  18.027
Transports    118.000 ~  22.401         Wishes         30.300 ~   6.084


I am not seeing any difference big enough to suspect any adverse effect of the 
starvation patch.  Indeed the variation of the numbers are within what I 
normally see from day to day.  Now this is not an ideal test in that it was 
designed to spot AI regressions and is not directly measuring production, but 
I would expect to see a secondary effect on the colony number/size and 
Wishes/Transports if production was significantly different.

The other interesting result is that I added code to ProductionTree.remove
that logs all instances of negative production.  In all the runs, this only 
happened for food and only for the "(goods.getType() == root.getType())"
case.

Of course we still should be wary about what we conclude here, as the AI does 
try to be productive:-), and has a narrower range of behaviour than a typical 
human player.  However I think we at least have evidence that the patch does 
not cause immediate showstoppers, so I am lead to recommend committing it and 
let us see what humans can find.

Cheers,
Mike Pope

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