On Mon, 23 Apr 2001, Phillip H. Zakas wrote:
> econometrics is not really science as much as it's the tool used by
> economists to help predict future behaviour and future value... Schumpeter
> said: "It is unreasonable to expect the economist to forecast correctly what
> will actually happen as it would be to expect a doctor to prognosticate when
> his patient will be the victim of a railroad accident and how this will
> affect his state of health".
Actually that's an invalid comparison. In the first case we're making
predictive inferences on a statistical responce on a long-lived reasonably
continous phenomenon. In the second we're dealing with a probabilistic (as
opposed to 'statistical' per se) single shot event.
(probability <> statistics)
Apples and Oranges.
____________________________________________________________________
The solution lies in the heart of humankind.
Chris Lawson
The Armadillo Group ,::////;::-. James Choate
Austin, Tx /:'///// ``::>/|/ [EMAIL PROTECTED]
www.ssz.com .', |||| `/( e\ 512-451-7087
-====~~mm-'`-```-mm --'-
--------------------------------------------------------------------
